Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $677.96
- Potential payout
- $123.27K
- Potential profit
- $122.59K
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$111.43
Polymarket Trader
0x8c66E28FbE7Ede7F57bA6CBc70408DfF442944F3-1777220320442
0x8c66e28fbe7ede7f57ba6cbc70408dff442944f3
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $75.99K
- Realized PnL
- $66.94K
- Win rate
- 91.7%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $113.86K
- Potential profit
- $113.86K
- User PnL
- -$9.09K
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $3.91K
- Potential payout
- $113.36K
- Potential profit
- $109.45K
- Multiplier
- 28.99x
- User PnL
- -$3.66K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $149.99
- Potential payout
- $99.99K
- Potential profit
- $99.84K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$749.96
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $22.62K
- Potential payout
- $50.82K
- Potential profit
- $28.21K
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- -$2.68K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $40.85K
- Potential payout
- $49.52K
- Potential profit
- $8.67K
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $5.98K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21.15K
- Potential profit
- $21.15K
- User PnL
- -$3.02K
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $32.72
- Potential payout
- $13.09K
- Potential profit
- $13.06K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.39K
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.93K
- Potential profit
- $12.93K
- User PnL
- -$672.23
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.68K
- Potential profit
- $12.68K
- User PnL
- -$3.2K
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $641.01
- Potential payout
- $9.94K
- Potential profit
- $9.3K
- Multiplier
- 15.50x
- User PnL
- $73.79
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.2K
- Potential profit
- $7.2K
- User PnL
- -$3.92K
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Current value
- $553.51
- Potential payout
- $6.15K
- Potential profit
- $5.6K
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- -$0
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $525.54
- Potential payout
- $5.53K
- Potential profit
- $5.01K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$248.94
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $3.36K
- Potential payout
- $5.46K
- Potential profit
- $2.1K
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $459.62
No position
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.58K
- Potential profit
- $4.58K
- User PnL
- -$370.03
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $4K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$996.58
Yes position
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $18.6
- Potential payout
- $2.66K
- Potential profit
- $2.64K
- Multiplier
- 142.86x
- User PnL
- -$3.15
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Current value
- $1.05K
- Potential payout
- $2.6K
- Potential profit
- $1.55K
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- -$715.61
Yes position
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.5%
- Current value
- $818.3
- Potential payout
- $2.13K
- Potential profit
- $1.31K
- Multiplier
- 2.60x
- User PnL
- -$268.56
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$1.82K
Yes position
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $379.94
- Potential payout
- $1.85K
- Potential profit
- $1.47K
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$246.17
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.9
- Potential payout
- $1.8K
- Potential profit
- $1.8K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$719.1
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $398.6
- Potential payout
- $1.35K
- Potential profit
- $952.58
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- -$276.64
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- $15.41K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $15.06K
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.52K
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.08K
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.15K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.86K
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $2.4K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.04K
No position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.42K
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.38K
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $694.26
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $690.03
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $674.17
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- User PnL
- $424.61
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $386.53
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $310
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $258.83
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 142.86x
- User PnL
- $134.77
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.73
Yes position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $20.23
No position
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.52
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.32
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$9.52
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$13.19
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes 15% 128.59 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 74.4% 613.8 shares
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No 84% 70 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?No 6% 295 shares
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No 66% 121.4 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 60.4% 10,500 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?No 94.6% 76.53 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 82% 4,000 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?No 8% 7,000 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Yes 7% 6,000 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?No 88.7% 2.45 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Yes 6% 359.2 shares