No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?
Ends Jul 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $11.35
- Potential payout
- $52.79
- Potential profit
- $41.44
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- $4.35
Polymarket Trader
randomactions
0x8ce8638d3563602431d4fbaa6d7adf6519e4e255
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $27.16
- Realized PnL
- $36.81
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Marty Supreme make 70 million or more domestically by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $43.48
- Potential profit
- $43.48
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40.01
- Potential profit
- $40.01
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: Crypto Edition
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.7%
- Current value
- $0.98
- Potential payout
- $17.24
- Potential profit
- $16.26
- Multiplier
- 17.54x
- User PnL
- -$0.02
Yes position
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 7.1%
- Current value
- $1.18
- Potential payout
- $16.67
- Potential profit
- $15.49
- Multiplier
- 14.10x
- User PnL
- $0.18
Yes position
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.13
- Potential profit
- $16.13
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Yemen by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.11
- Potential profit
- $16.11
- User PnL
- -$0.87
Yes position
Stefon Diggs in jail by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.11
- Potential profit
- $11.11
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.75
- Potential profit
- $10.75
- User PnL
- -$3
Up position
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.92
- Potential profit
- $9.92
- User PnL
- -$2.28
Down position
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.89
- Potential profit
- $9.89
- User PnL
- -$3.06
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.1%
- Current value
- $0.46
- Potential payout
- $9.09
- Potential profit
- $8.63
- Multiplier
- 19.65x
- User PnL
- -$0.54
No position
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $6.8
- Potential payout
- $6.82
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.8
Yes position
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.02
- Potential payout
- $6.25
- Potential profit
- $6.23
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$0.98
Yes position
Stefon Diggs suspended this season?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.25
- Potential profit
- $6.25
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $0.91
- Potential payout
- $6.25
- Potential profit
- $5.34
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $6
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
US military draft authorized in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $5.45
- Potential payout
- $5.95
- Potential profit
- $0.51
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.45
Yes position
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.01
- Potential payout
- $5.88
- Potential profit
- $5.87
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.99
Yes position
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 30-January 5?
Ends Jan 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.35
- Potential profit
- $4.35
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.17
- Potential profit
- $4.17
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 680k+ BTC by January 31?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.17
- Potential profit
- $4.17
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Up position
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6
No position
Weed rescheduled by December 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $3.99
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.95
No position
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.6
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?
Ends Jan 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.32
Down position
XRP Up or Down - February 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.03
No position
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.88
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.86
Yes position
Will Trump say "Putin" during his announcement on September 2?
Ends Sep 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.48
Yes position
Ethereum flipped in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.4
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22
Yes position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.9%
- Multiplier
- 17.09x
- User PnL
- $1.08
Yes position
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.03
Yes position
Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.93
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.92
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.77
MTG position
Nancy Pelosi vs Marjorie Taylor Greene: Week of January 5
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.67
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.66
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.64
Yes position
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.6
No position
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.58
Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- $0.48
80k position
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.38
Yes position
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.35
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Yes 16% 6.25 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes 5.8% 17.24 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?No 13.3% 52.79 shares
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Yes 11% 6.66 shares
- Weed rescheduled by December 31?No 72.7% 10.98 shares
- Weed rescheduled by December 31?No 36.4% 10.99 shares
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes 52% 2.85 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?No 50% 6 shares
- US military draft authorized in 2026?No 84% 5.95 shares
- Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?Yes 61% 1.85 shares
- XRP Up or Down - February 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ETUp 23% 9.92 shares
- XRP Up or Down - February 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ETDown 31% 9.89 shares