Polymarket Trader

laura-ra

0x8d1595c25674ebe79e29e5031f5dcbe3abbf3d9c

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $14.84
Realized PnL: $1.04K
Win rate: 58.3%
Open positions: 14
Closed positions: 12
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Megaquake by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $504.54
Potential profit: $504.54
User PnL: -$45.9

Yes position

Xi Jinping out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $173.4
Potential profit: $173.4
User PnL: -$15.4

Yes position

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.8%
Current value: $6.93
Potential payout: $88.89
Potential profit: $81.96
Multiplier: 12.82x
User PnL: -$1.07

Yes position

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $70
User PnL: -$5.1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.52
Potential payout: $68.97
Potential profit: $68.45
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$1.48

Yes position

Megaquake by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $56.67
Potential profit: $56.67
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $5
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $35
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Megaquake by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34.99
Potential profit: $34.99
User PnL: -$2.6

Yes position

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $1.81
Potential payout: $27.78
Potential profit: $25.97
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$3.19

Yes position

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $0.59
Potential payout: $22.22
Potential profit: $21.63
Multiplier: 37.74x
User PnL: -$0.41

Yes position

Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.22
Potential profit: $22.22
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $14.29
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.53
Potential profit: $10.53
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Megaquake by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$2.1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Megaquake before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $790.09

Yes position

Megaquake by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $145.64

Yes position

Earthquake 7.0 or above before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95.98

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.91

Yes position

Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.15

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.28

Yes position

Earthquake 7.0 or above by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.59

Yes position

Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.2

Yes position

Xi Jinping out before October?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.87

Yes position

Megaquake by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$15.16

Yes position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.8%
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: -$47.29

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Yes 25% 40 shares
Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Yes 8.7% 260.96 shares
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Yes 18% 27.78 shares
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?

Yes 9% 22.22 shares
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Yes 19% 10.53 shares
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Yes 4.5% 22.22 shares
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Yes 9% 88.89 shares
Megaquake by November 30?

Yes 8% 15 shares
Xi Jinping out in 2025?

Yes 8% 100 shares
Xi Jinping out in 2025?

Yes 8% 15 shares
Megaquake by October 31?

Yes 8% 20 shares
Xi Jinping out in 2025?

Yes 7% 20 shares