Polymarket Trader

MMemento

0x8d7069054c0b48a036fb9034ba6761b9a09772ee

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $0
Realized PnL: $2.9K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 7?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $46.89K
Potential profit: $46.89K
User PnL: -$484.33

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $20K
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.97K
Potential profit: $18.97K
User PnL: -$14.53K

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.58K
Potential profit: $9.58K
User PnL: -$5K

No position

Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 4?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.83K
Potential profit: $6.83K
User PnL: -$2.48K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.25K
Potential profit: $2.25K
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.85K
Potential profit: $1.85K
User PnL: -$1.12K

No position

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $1.6K
User PnL: -$1.22K

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.39K
Potential profit: $1.39K
User PnL: -$220

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.21K
Potential profit: $1.21K
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$3

No position

Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $644.38
Potential profit: $644.38
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $437.2
Potential profit: $437.2
User PnL: -$177.02

Yes position

Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $396.35
Potential profit: $396.35
User PnL: -$20.08

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on March 7?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $212.02
Potential profit: $212.02
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will "Swapped" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will another company be accused of insider trading?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $133.33
Potential profit: $133.33
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will MEXC be accused of insider trading?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $108.7
Potential profit: $108.7
User PnL: -$2.5

No position

Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 26?

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $101.61
Potential profit: $101.61
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Netflix Game Controller be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$10

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $647.04

Yes position

Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $429

Yes position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $261.49

No position

U.S. strike on Somalia by March 7?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $162.03

Yes position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $147.38

Yes position

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123

No position

Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120.7

Yes position

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120.14

Yes position

Will Artemis II launch by April 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $115.39

Yes position

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $106.8

Yes position

Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.92

Yes position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82.47

No position

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.16

Yes position

Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 26, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.07

No position

Netanyahu out by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.51

Yes position

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 19, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.5

Yes position

Hezbollah military action against Israel by March 20?

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.71

No position

BitBoy convicted?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.42

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 16?

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.4

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.09

Yes position

Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.85

Yes position

Will Trump say "NATO" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.57

No position

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.14

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?

No 92% 51.99 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Yes 93% 541.28 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Yes 93% 433.76 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Yes 85% 61.72 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Yes 81% 61.73 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?

No 96.2% 51.99 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 72.9% 137.21 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 75% 66.67 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 42% 6.17 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Yes 93% 107.53 shares
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Yes 35% 28.57 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?

Yes 39% 12.82 shares