No position
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $520.31
- Potential profit
- $520.31
- User PnL
- -$97.54
Polymarket Trader
TheFlibustier
0x8d71ffbf1998362c60b49c709082f477bee18ce9
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $169.12
- Realized PnL
- -$41.87
- Win rate
- 38.5%
- Open positions
- 17
- Closed positions
- 13
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 10.8%
- Current value
- $43.6
- Potential payout
- $405.61
- Potential profit
- $362
- Multiplier
- 9.30x
- User PnL
- -$6.4
Yes position
Will Yoon leave South Korea before March?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $338.54
- Potential profit
- $338.54
- User PnL
- -$10.5
Yes position
Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?
Ends Apr 23, 2027- Implied probability
- 37.5%
- Current value
- $37.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $62.5
- Multiplier
- 2.67x
- User PnL
- $7.5
Yes position
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $98.28
- Potential profit
- $98.28
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $79.52
- Potential payout
- $80.53
- Potential profit
- $1.01
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $59.12
No position
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $72.12
- Potential profit
- $72.12
- User PnL
- -$18.75
No position
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?
Ends Dec 8, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $71.43
- Potential profit
- $71.43
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
Will Raphaël Glucksmann announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
Ends Apr 23, 2027- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $8.5
- Potential payout
- $51.5
- Potential profit
- $43
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$1.5
No position
TikTok removed from App Store by Monday?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $46.88
- Potential profit
- $46.88
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $43.55
- Potential profit
- $43.55
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $28.3
- Potential profit
- $28.3
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25.64
- Potential profit
- $25.64
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.01
- Potential profit
- $20.01
- User PnL
- -$1.78
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.89
- Potential profit
- $18.89
- User PnL
- -$3.4
Yes position
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?
Ends Dec 8, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.21
- Potential profit
- $18.21
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1
- Potential profit
- $1
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.6
Yes position
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.96
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by January 31, 2025?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.21
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.07
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.16
Yes position
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.06
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.83
Yes position
Macron out as president of France in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.08
Yes position
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?
Ends Jul 20, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner?
Ends Jul 20, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$15.91
No position
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?
Ends Jul 20, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$30
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Raphaël Glucksmann announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?No 19.4% 51.5 shares
- Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?Yes 30% 100 shares
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 12.3% 405.61 shares
- Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?Yes 93.6% 77.36 shares
- Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?Yes 25.3% 157.89 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes 76% 9 shares
- Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?Yes 53% 28.3 shares
- Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?Yes 3.9% 25.64 shares
- Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?Yes 7.9% 204.71 shares
- RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?No 26% 72.12 shares
- Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April?Yes 15% 125 shares
- TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?No 20.6% 267.45 shares