No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $113.11
- Potential payout
- $120.98
- Potential profit
- $7.86
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $13.37
Polymarket Trader
kapitel
0x8e401fabe8682f823bb3e6191f10d1927a08cda7
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $356.1
- Realized PnL
- $301.19
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 16
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $1.08
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $78.92
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.84
Yes position
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $66.67
- Potential profit
- $66.67
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83%
- Current value
- $52.33
- Potential payout
- $63.05
- Potential profit
- $10.72
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $2.33
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $48.18
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $1.83
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $23.17
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.7%
- Current value
- $1.83
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $48.18
- Multiplier
- 27.40x
- User PnL
- -$23.18
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $46.76
- Potential profit
- $46.76
- User PnL
- -$4.68
No position
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $41.1
- Potential payout
- $41.1
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $11.1
Yes position
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $33.33
- Potential payout
- $33.33
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $13.33
Yes position
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $11.85
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $18.15
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- -$8.55
No position
GTA VI released before June 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $29.99
- Potential payout
- $29.99
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.64
Yes position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.2%
- Current value
- $1.03
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $18.97
- Multiplier
- 19.42x
- User PnL
- -$0.77
Yes position
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $2.3
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $17.7
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$2.3
No position
Trump out as President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $19.98
- Potential payout
- $19.98
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $1.2
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.41
- Potential profit
- $19.41
- User PnL
- -$11.45
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$3.1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.51
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.28
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,500 on March 8?
Ends Mar 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.6
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.21
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET
Ends Mar 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.92
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.41
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.46
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.54
Yes position
Will "The Dinosaurs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?
Ends Mar 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.2
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.85
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.76
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.55
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET
Ends Mar 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.83
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET
Ends Mar 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.5
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.28
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.06
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.11
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.95
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,500 on March 8?
Ends Mar 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.95
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.65
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET
Ends Mar 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.51
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7PM ET
Ends Mar 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.86
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET
Ends Mar 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.81
No position
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 68%
- Multiplier
- 1.47x
- User PnL
- $3.4
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?No 73% 41.1 shares
- Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Yes 15% 66.67 shares
- Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?No 61% 20.32 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?Yes 59% 18.82 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?Yes 10% 43.52 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April?Yes 74% 39.02 shares
- Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes 60% 33.33 shares
- US strike on Mexico by December 31?No 79.3% 63.05 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?No 99.5% 20 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Yes 4.6% 109.47 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Yes 31% 10 shares
- Trump out as President by June 30?No 94% 19.96 shares