slyman

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.7K
Potential profit: $7.7K
User PnL: -$999.99

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.58K
Potential profit: $2.58K
User PnL: -$285.24

Yes position

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.69K
Potential profit: $1.69K
User PnL: -$223

Yes position

Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.19K
Potential profit: $1.19K
User PnL: -$278.76

Yes position

Will Amazon reach $284 in January?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $779.08
Potential profit: $779.08
User PnL: -$86.56

Yes position

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $8.96
Potential payout: $716.67
Potential profit: $707.71
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$0.48

Yes position

Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $6.56
Potential payout: $625
Potential profit: $618.44
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: $1.56

Yes position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $243.85
Potential payout: $587.58
Potential profit: $343.73
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: $61.39

Yes position

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.26
Potential payout: $504.22
Potential profit: $502.96
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$109.13

Yes position

Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $3.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $496.25
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $3.86
Potential payout: $454.55
Potential profit: $450.68
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$1.14

Yes position

Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?

Ends Jan 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $426.53
Potential profit: $426.53
User PnL: -$235

Yes position

Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $424.58
Potential profit: $424.58
User PnL: -$43

Yes position

Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $9.54
Potential payout: $406.09
Potential profit: $396.55
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$45.46

Yes position

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

Implied probability: 40%
Current value: $154.27
Potential payout: $385.68
Potential profit: $231.41
Multiplier: 2.50x
User PnL: $54.27

Yes position

Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $384.62
Potential profit: $382.12
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $6.5
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $326.83
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $2.17
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $331.17
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$2.83

Yes position

Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $3.83
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $329.5
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: $0.83

Yes position

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $2.83
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $330.5
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$0.17

Yes position

Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of February 2 above $255?

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$93

Yes position

Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of February 2 above $250?

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $292.73
Potential profit: $292.73
User PnL: -$114.16

Yes position

US strike on Mexico by December 31?

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $47.55
Potential payout: $264.15
Potential profit: $216.6
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: -$38.45

Yes position

Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $251.27
Potential profit: $251.27
User PnL: -$12.46

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $151.5

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.37

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in December?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.29

Yes position

Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.28

Yes position

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.83

Yes position

Will Amazon reach $248 in January?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.07

Yes position

Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 86.5%
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $17.3

No position

Maduro mugshot released by Monday?

Ends Jan 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.52

Yes position

Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: $9.54

Yes position

US bank failure by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.7

Yes position

Will Google reach $340 in January?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.64

Yes position

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$1.29

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$6.98

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$7.38

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in December?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$13

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Kim Jong Un in December?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$13

No position

Will Dollar General (DG) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Dec 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$13

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$21

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$21.2

Yes position

US strike on Mexico by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$22.6

Yes position

US strike on Cuba by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$22.71

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?