abdoohl

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $584.82
Potential payout: $4.33K
Potential profit: $3.75K
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $141.63

Yes position

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $2.9K
Potential payout: $4.24K
Potential profit: $1.33K
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: $883.28

Yes position

Ebola case in the US by June 30?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $150.47
Potential payout: $3.34K
Potential profit: $3.19K
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$218.16

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 7.3%
Current value: $243.69
Potential payout: $3.34K
Potential profit: $3.09K
Multiplier: 13.70x
User PnL: -$116.93

Yes position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $56.25
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.44K
Multiplier: 26.67x
User PnL: -$78.73

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $213.57
Potential payout: $1.47K
Potential profit: $1.26K
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $8.98

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Implied probability: 32%
Current value: $300.43
Potential payout: $938.85
Potential profit: $638.42
Multiplier: 3.13x
User PnL: -$103.42

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 10.9%
Current value: $83.81
Potential payout: $772.4
Potential profit: $688.59
Multiplier: 9.22x
User PnL: $5.14

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?

Implied probability: 10.7%
Current value: $73.25
Potential payout: $684.6
Potential profit: $611.35
Multiplier: 9.35x
User PnL: $63.48

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $55.82
Potential payout: $587.61
Potential profit: $531.79
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $0.66

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $288.55
Potential payout: $560.29
Potential profit: $271.74
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: $74.07

Yes position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.39
Potential payout: $555
Potential profit: $553.61
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$14.71

Yes position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $28.16
Potential payout: $512
Potential profit: $483.84
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$23.04

Yes position

Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $63.45
Potential payout: $423
Potential profit: $359.55
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$37.28

Yes position

Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $106.41
Potential payout: $327.41
Potential profit: $221
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: -$3.44

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Implied probability: 29%
Current value: $89.57
Potential payout: $308.86
Potential profit: $219.29
Multiplier: 3.45x
User PnL: $15.84

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $229.82
Potential profit: $229.71
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$34.36

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $34.67
Potential payout: $210.1
Potential profit: $175.43
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $2.6

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $11.31
Potential payout: $205.71
Potential profit: $194.4
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$11.73

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $199.9
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$69.9

Yes position

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $14
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $86
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$13

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $14.05
Potential payout: $90.64
Potential profit: $76.59
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $1.26

Yes position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $17.24
Potential payout: $70.38
Potential profit: $53.14
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: -$1.06

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $3.26
Potential payout: $54.81
Potential profit: $51.55
Multiplier: 16.81x
User PnL: $0.58

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 6%
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: $3.55K

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 40.2%
Multiplier: 2.49x
User PnL: $2.14K

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.61K

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $758.29

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $688.42

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $503.86

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $387.71

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Multiplier: 5.73x
User PnL: $372.82

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 87.8%
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $357.92

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 88%
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $339.25

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $281.28

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $163.58

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $133.13

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Implied probability: 79.4%
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $131.96

No position

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $114.66

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.05

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.47

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.35

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 82.6%
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $97.77

Yes position

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $94.41

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.19

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $86.6

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 73.5%
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $78.01

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?