Yes position
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.7
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $199.3
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Polymarket Trader
Giar
0x8e6ed796b7983dacae2c8fc5315229b40d1b2259
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $20.46
- Realized PnL
- $539.66
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.07
- Potential payout
- $136.36
- Potential profit
- $136.3
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$29.93
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $8.07
- Potential payout
- $107.64
- Potential profit
- $99.57
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$11.93
Yes position
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $1.6
- Potential payout
- $97.08
- Potential profit
- $95.48
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- -$2.4
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.8%
- Current value
- $4.85
- Potential payout
- $62.12
- Potential profit
- $57.28
- Multiplier
- 12.82x
- User PnL
- -$2.15
Yes position
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.03
- Potential payout
- $57.14
- Potential profit
- $57.11
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$3.97
Yes position
Obama divorce before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $2.29
- Potential payout
- $41.67
- Potential profit
- $39.38
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$2.71
Yes position
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Current value
- $1.03
- Potential payout
- $30.77
- Potential profit
- $29.74
- Multiplier
- 29.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.97
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.08
- Potential payout
- $27.78
- Potential profit
- $27.69
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.92
Yes position
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $19.95
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.95
Yes position
Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.11
- Potential payout
- $18.18
- Potential profit
- $18.07
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$1.89
Yes position
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.2%
- Current value
- $0.52
- Potential payout
- $12.5
- Potential profit
- $11.98
- Multiplier
- 24.10x
- User PnL
- -$0.48
Yes position
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $0.61
- Potential payout
- $11.11
- Potential profit
- $10.5
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$0.39
Yes position
Justin & Hailey Bieber split in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.8%
- Current value
- $0.45
- Potential payout
- $9.47
- Potential profit
- $9.02
- Multiplier
- 21.05x
- User PnL
- -$1.35
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Artemis II launch by February 28?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $118.21
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $103.68
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.78
No position
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.91
Yes position
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-01-14?
Ends Jan 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27
No position
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.4%
- Multiplier
- 6.10x
- User PnL
- $10.79
Yes position
Will All the Empty Rooms win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.64
Yes position
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.62
Yes position
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- $10.6
No position
Will Artemis II launch by February 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.57
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.79
Yes position
Will Vedat Muriqi be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.59
Yes position
Will Marc-André ter Stegen sign with a new club during the winter transfer window?
Ends Feb 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.39
Yes position
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 41%
- Multiplier
- 2.44x
- User PnL
- $7.37
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.12
Yes position
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.9%
- Multiplier
- 35.09x
- User PnL
- $5.83
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.53
Yes position
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11?
Ends Jan 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.42
No position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5
Yes position
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 8?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.12
No position
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM?
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.08
Yes position
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.08
Yes position
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.85
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.7
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June 2026?Yes 9.8% 40.98 shares
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June 2026?Yes 7% 14.29 shares
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June 2026?Yes 28% 35.71 shares
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026?Yes 11% 45.45 shares
- Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?Yes 0.8% 250 shares
- Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?Yes 4.5% 22.22 shares
- Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?Yes 15% 6.67 shares
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June 2026?Yes 30% 6.67 shares
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June 2026?Yes 30% 10 shares
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026?Yes 12% 16.67 shares
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in June 2026?Yes 3.6% 27.78 shares
- Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?Yes 5% 20 shares