Polymarket Trader

luckysplit

0x8e7aa1b88993fe2ac3eb15940691a46ab4030f0e

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $813.01
Realized PnL: $3.87K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Trump cabinet member out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.48K
Potential profit: $3.48K
User PnL: -$39.09

No position

Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.69K
Potential profit: $1.69K
User PnL: -$3.78

Yes position

Will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

No position

Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $742.7
Potential profit: $742.7
User PnL: -$38.77

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $641.23
Potential profit: $641.23
User PnL: -$6.41

No position

Blue wave in 2026?

Ends Nov 30, 2026

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $144.87
Potential payout: $536.54
Potential profit: $391.68
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$6.34

Up position

Solana Up or Down - March 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $499.96
Potential profit: $499.96
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $440
Potential profit: $440
User PnL: -$96.8

No position

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $410.58
Potential profit: $410.58
User PnL: -$149.67

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $384.73
Potential profit: $384.73
User PnL: -$19.54

No position

Blue tsunami in 2026?

Ends Nov 30, 2026

Implied probability: 60%
Current value: $180
Potential payout: $300.01
Potential profit: $120
Multiplier: 1.67x
User PnL: -$22.5

Yes position

Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$1.2

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $34.88
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $215.13
Multiplier: 7.17x
User PnL: -$10.23

Yes position

Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $202
Potential profit: $202
User PnL: -$0.93

Yes position

Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.9
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $199.1
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$17.1

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $81
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $119
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$9

Yes position

Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $20.9
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $179.1
Multiplier: 9.57x
User PnL: $6.9

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 79.4%
Current value: $158.78
Potential payout: $199.97
Potential profit: $41.19
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $155.38

No position

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.6%
Current value: $170.43
Potential payout: $178.27
Potential profit: $7.84
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $29.93

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $7.55
Potential payout: $173.85
Potential profit: $166.31
Multiplier: 23.04x
User PnL: -$24.44

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $155.84
Potential profit: $155.84
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $13.72
Potential payout: $144.4
Potential profit: $130.68
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$7.94

Yes position

Will "One Battle After Another" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $127.11
Potential profit: $127.11
User PnL: -$9.72

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the government shutdown end November 13?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $737.8

No position

Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Oct 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $455

No position

Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $365.1

No position

Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $339.3

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $220.08

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $188

Yes position

Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123.71

Seahawks position

Rams vs. Seahawks

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120.82

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111

Yes position

Will Jimmy Kimmel rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.2

Yes position

Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.09

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on December 17?

Ends Dec 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $98

Yes position

Lighter Airdrop on December 30?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.4

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.15

No position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.09

No position

Will Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.09

Yes position

Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.5

Yes position

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.32

Yes position

Will André Ventura win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.3

Broncos position

Bills vs. Broncos

Ends Jan 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.68

Chiefs position

Colts vs. Chiefs

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67

Over position

Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5

Ends Jan 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.22

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66

Yes position

Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 157m and 167m?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.25

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?

No 62% 100 shares
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

No 87% 100 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET

Down 46% 19.69 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET

Up 54% 9.85 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

Up 44% 19.7 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET

Down 5% 19.98 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET

Down 5% 19.99 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET

Up 45% 19.69 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

Up 40% 9.86 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET

Up 31.9% 9.88 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET

Up 82% 19.89 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET

Down 39% 9.86 shares