Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $145
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $855
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- $15
Polymarket Trader
0x8E811aaE5732bD56D0B104be658D1aB29a789E88-1778389453419
0x8e811aae5732bd56d0b104be658d1ab29a789e88
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $196.99
- Realized PnL
- $200.09
- Win rate
- 70%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 10
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $333.58
- Potential profit
- $333.58
- User PnL
- -$39.7
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$138
Yes position
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $17.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $82.5
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $34.49
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $65.51
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- -$12.51
Yes position
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $38.1
- Potential profit
- $38.1
- User PnL
- -$24
No position
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.17
- Potential profit
- $11.17
- User PnL
- -$6
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $123
Yes position
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $65.75
No position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.78
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.61
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.7
Yes position
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14
No position
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $13.4
No position
Will Dricus Du Plessis be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- -$12.15
No position
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$33.99
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$94
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 99.1% 300 shares
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes 19% 100 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Yes 0.4% 1,000 shares
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes 47% 100 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 13% 1,000 shares
- Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes 38.2% 96.81 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 11.9% 333.58 shares
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 79.6% 151.8 shares
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 79.1% 100 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Yes 9.8% 6.41 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 33% 200 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 69% 200 shares