Polymarket Trader

BalancedFury

0x8e83a67f888f29ca710884beeaf057abc255bdd4

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $2.03K
Realized PnL: $1.24K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 12
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $876.17
Potential payout: $878.37
Potential profit: $2.2
User PnL: $7.32

No position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $409.4
Potential payout: $409.6
Potential profit: $0.2
User PnL: $3.26

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $199.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $0.5
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Epstein client list released by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $110.61
Potential payout: $111
Potential profit: $0.39
User PnL: $0.83

No position

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $99.85
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $0.15
User PnL: $0.25

No position

Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $99.85
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $0.15
User PnL: $0.15

No position

US recognize Somaliland by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 90.4%
Current value: $65.98
Potential payout: $72.99
Potential profit: $7.01
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: -$5.08

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $62.97
Potential payout: $63
Potential profit: $0.03
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $53.1
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $6.9
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $0.3

Yes position

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $29.37
Potential payout: $29.59
Potential profit: $0.22
User PnL: $0.01

No position

Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.9%
Current value: $24.98
Potential payout: $25.52
Potential profit: $0.54
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $1.08

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $1.28
Potential payout: $1.43
Potential profit: $0.15
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.28

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

Ends Jan 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $128.42

Yes position

Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90.57

No position

US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?

Ends Jan 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.69

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?

Ends Jan 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.38

No position

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

Ends Jan 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.94

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.52

Yes position

QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.94

No position

Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?

Ends Jan 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.29

No position

Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.72

No position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?

Ends Jan 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.38

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.03

No position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?

Ends Jan 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.72

Yes position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.08

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?

Ends Jan 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.85

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.7%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $42.74

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.26

Yes position

Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.5

No position

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.27

No position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.34

No position

Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.53

No position

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

Ends Jan 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.55

No position

Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28

No position

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

Ends Jan 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28

No position

Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?

Ends Jan 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.73

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Spread: France (-3.5)

Norway 98.6% 10 shares
Spread: France (-3.5)

Norway 99.9% 28 shares
Spread: France (-4.5)

Norway 99.9% 6.62 shares
Spread: France (-3.5)

Norway 99.6% 10 shares
Spread: France (-5.5)

Norway 99.9% 18.05 shares
Spread: France (-3.5)

Norway 99% 5.34 shares
Spread: France (-3.5)

Norway 99.6% 10 shares
Spread: France (-3.5)

Norway 99.5% 17.49 shares
Spread: France (-3.5)

Norway 99% 5 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-26?

Yes 99% 100.03 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-26?

Yes 98.8% 34.64 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-26?

Yes 98.7% 100.03 shares