No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $1.41K
- Potential payout
- $1.61K
- Potential profit
- $201.78
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $57.19
Polymarket Trader
ScientiaRex
0x8f0b2957d8c0ef47609fd01e42959fa6c70e8be2
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $17.85K
- Realized PnL
- $1.36K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.8%
- Current value
- $1.45K
- Potential payout
- $1.49K
- Potential profit
- $33.49
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $33.53
No position
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $1.23K
- Potential payout
- $1.42K
- Potential profit
- $192.22
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $100.36
No position
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $1.23K
- Potential payout
- $1.36K
- Potential profit
- $129.55
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $34.09
No position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $1.07K
- Potential payout
- $1.08K
- Potential profit
- $6.99
- User PnL
- $57.69
No position
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $881.09
- Potential payout
- $1.01K
- Potential profit
- $125.87
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $16.75
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.2%
- Current value
- $905.26
- Potential payout
- $961.51
- Potential profit
- $56.25
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $57.51
No position
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $796.33
- Potential payout
- $936.86
- Potential profit
- $140.53
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $96.33
No position
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $858.04
- Potential payout
- $868.46
- Potential profit
- $10.42
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $25.83
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $824.92
- Potential payout
- $831.57
- Potential profit
- $6.65
- User PnL
- $30.35
No position
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $763.82
- Potential payout
- $767.66
- Potential profit
- $3.84
- User PnL
- $36.02
No position
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $650.77
- Potential payout
- $703.53
- Potential profit
- $52.76
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $30.77
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $685.62
- Potential payout
- $696.42
- Potential profit
- $10.79
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $78.63
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $578.62
- Potential payout
- $676.74
- Potential profit
- $98.13
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$3.38
No position
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.1%
- Current value
- $609.17
- Potential payout
- $640.56
- Potential profit
- $31.39
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $2.65
No position
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97%
- Current value
- $571.84
- Potential payout
- $589.83
- Potential profit
- $17.99
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $5.6
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $474.88
- Potential payout
- $582.75
- Potential profit
- $107.87
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $24.88
No position
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $440.1
- Potential payout
- $517.77
- Potential profit
- $77.67
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $18.86
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $508.52
- Potential payout
- $516
- Potential profit
- $7.48
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $43.2
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $400.41
- Potential payout
- $428.25
- Potential profit
- $27.84
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $9.61
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $370.21
- Potential payout
- $413.65
- Potential profit
- $43.43
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $16.61
No position
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $376.41
- Potential payout
- $402.58
- Potential profit
- $26.17
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $16.89
No position
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $383.77
- Potential payout
- $386.09
- Potential profit
- $2.32
- User PnL
- $44.01
No position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $369.53
- Potential payout
- $371.58
- Potential profit
- $2.04
- User PnL
- $11.83
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US downs a Mexican cartel drone by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $230.86
No position
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $187.48
No position
French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $114.82
No position
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $109.87
No position
US strike on Mexico by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.51
No position
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.66
No position
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $83.4
No position
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.01
No position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.83
No position
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.22
No position
US strike on Cuba by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.67
No position
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $32.97
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 9, 2026?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.1
No position
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.46
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.7
No position
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by January 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.68
No position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.13
No position
Iran strike on Qatar by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.06
No position
Will US annex any territory in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $9.1
No position
Venezuela coup attempt by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.81
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $5.56
No position
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.1
No position
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $3.45
No position
US strike on Cuba by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.71
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?No 94% 4.26 shares
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Yes 84.3% 42 shares
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Yes 84% 43.37 shares
- Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026?No 99.5% 102.62 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?No 94% 14.89 shares
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?No 94.9% 90 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 99.8% 99.34 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.8% 20 shares
- US strike on Colombia by December 31?No 77% 148 shares
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?No 96.6% 27.14 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?No 96.8% 20 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?No 96.7% 74.81 shares