Polymarket Trader

liukun

0x8f2de6c8693179d2bc00d4de189b12aa3ef6e36f

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $270.06
Realized PnL: $147.59
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 13
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $145.6
Potential profit: $145.6
User PnL: -$91.05

No position

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $115.24
Potential payout: $121.95
Potential profit: $6.71
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $15.24

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.4%
Current value: $115.62
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $4.38
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $11.22

No position

US government shutdown by October 1?

Ends Oct 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $68.97
Potential profit: $68.97
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.54
Potential profit: $31.54
User PnL: -$20

England position

Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $10.7
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $9.3
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: $0.1

No position

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $17.3
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $2.7
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $2.1

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$4.2

No position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 17, 2026?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 31%
Current value: $4.65
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $10.35
Multiplier: 3.23x
User PnL: $0.3

Yes position

Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?

Ends Oct 24, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $15
User PnL: -$13.5

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $6.55
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $3.45
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7
Potential profit: $7
User PnL: -$5.04

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23

No position

TikTok sale announced by September 30?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.75

No position

Xi Jinping out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.78

No position

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.59

Yes position

Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.93

No position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10

No position

Will Atlas have a Windows app live by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.3

Yes position

Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.9

Norway position

Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.4

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.6

Colombia position

Colombia vs. Ghana: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

Canada position

South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.9

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.26

No position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.08

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-07-04?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.55

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.4

France position

Paraguay vs. France: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.24

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2

No position

TikTok sale announced by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.63

No position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.6

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.6

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.3

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.9

No position

Will Atlas have a Windows app live by October 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.88

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?

Yes 99.9% 101.63 shares
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?

Yes 98% 81.63 shares
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

No 82% 121.95 shares
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?

Yes 92% 20 shares
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?

Yes 96.5% 10.36 shares
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?

Yes 86% 23.26 shares
TikTok sale announced by November 30?

No 86% 11.63 shares
Will TikTok be banned in 2025?

No 96.5% 7.98 shares
Will Atlas have a Windows app live by October 31?

No 92% 11 shares
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31?

No 97.2% 15 shares
TikTok sale announced by October 31?

No 96.8% 10.33 shares
Xi Jinping out in 2025?

No 94% 196.41 shares