Polymarket Trader

0x8f4e...7c93

0x8f4e23015483fe76969e7c02b9e2fb6defc97c93

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $2.36K
Realized PnL: $716.2
Win rate: 91.7%
Open positions: 18
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $308.24
Potential payout: $329.67
Potential profit: $21.43
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $8.24

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.4%
Current value: $257.06
Potential payout: $272.45
Potential profit: $15.39
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $8.31

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $266.23
Potential payout: $268.24
Potential profit: $2.01
User PnL: $16.23

No position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $200.24
Potential payout: $248.75
Potential profit: $48.51
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $1.24

No position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $217.26
Potential payout: $218.68
Potential profit: $1.42
User PnL: $18.26

No position

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $211.08
Potential payout: $215.05
Potential profit: $3.98
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $11.08

Yes position

Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96%
Current value: $184.28
Potential payout: $191.96
Potential profit: $7.68
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: -$0.19

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $154.85
Potential payout: $156.02
Potential profit: $1.17
User PnL: $4.85

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $100.69
Potential payout: $138.89
Potential profit: $38.19
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $0.69

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $132.1
Potential payout: $134.04
Potential profit: $1.94
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $30.36

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $98.68
Potential payout: $131.58
Potential profit: $32.89
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: -$1.32

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $105.53
Potential payout: $106.38
Potential profit: $0.85
User PnL: $5.53

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 85.3%
Current value: $21.42
Potential payout: $25.11
Potential profit: $3.69
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $1.42

No position

Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 91%
Current value: $21.16
Potential payout: $23.26
Potential profit: $2.09
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $1.16

No position

Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $21.7
Potential payout: $22.73
Potential profit: $1.02
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $1.7

No position

Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $20.21
Potential payout: $21.74
Potential profit: $1.53
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.21

No position

Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.1%
Current value: $20.68
Potential payout: $21.53
Potential profit: $0.85
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.68

No position

Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 95.6%
Current value: $20.33
Potential payout: $21.28
Potential profit: $0.95
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.33

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $236.14

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.18

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.75

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.31

Yes position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.64

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.93

No position

Iran leadership change by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.6

Yes position

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.53

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.73

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.75

No position

Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.62

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.41

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.87

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.04

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.84

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.24

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.88

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.76

Yes position

Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.5

Yes position

Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.03

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.81

Yes position

Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.66

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

No 91% 109.89 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?

Yes 86% 71.15 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?

Yes 83% 24.1 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?

Yes 84% 23.81 shares
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

Yes 96.8% 20.62 shares
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Yes 39.3% 51.29 shares
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Yes 67% 51.3 shares
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

No 91% 219.78 shares
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026?

No 93% 215.05 shares
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Yes 72% 138.89 shares
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Yes 76% 131.58 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Yes 1.9% 153.04 shares