0x8F9F70a4D9beeB568742C06f15Ea7Bd9A60236e1-1769884053243

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $38.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $961.5
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: -$61.5

Yes position

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.03
Potential payout: $686.68
Potential profit: $685.65
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$42.97

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $58.58
Potential payout: $616.67
Potential profit: $558.08
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$52.42

Yes position

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $32.1
Potential payout: $479.12
Potential profit: $447.02
Multiplier: 14.93x
User PnL: -$11.02

Yes position

Macron out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.64
Potential payout: $426.12
Potential profit: $425.48
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$10.36

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 17.7%
Current value: $65.81
Potential payout: $372.83
Potential profit: $307.03
Multiplier: 5.67x
User PnL: $21.81

Yes position

Russian strike on Poland by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $165.8
Potential profit: $165.55
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$10.75

Yes position

Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.58
Potential payout: $165.63
Potential profit: $165.05
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$2.07

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $7.89
Potential payout: $159.33
Potential profit: $151.45
Multiplier: 20.20x
User PnL: -$6.45

Yes position

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $18.18
Potential payout: $145.42
Potential profit: $127.24
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$14.82

Yes position

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $10.31
Potential payout: $137.5
Potential profit: $127.19
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$11.69

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $8.11
Potential payout: $124.83
Potential profit: $116.72
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$24.89

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $19.14
Potential payout: $116
Potential profit: $96.86
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$35.86

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.4
Potential payout: $115.61
Potential profit: $115.2
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$10.6

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $10.45
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $99.55
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$33.55

Yes position

Megaquake by June 30?

Implied probability: 2.6%
Current value: $2.72
Potential payout: $104.76
Potential profit: $102.04
Multiplier: 38.46x
User PnL: -$19.28

Yes position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $16.24
Potential payout: $104.76
Potential profit: $88.52
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$49.76

Yes position

Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $101.92
Potential profit: $101.77
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$2.12

Yes position

Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $9.62
Potential payout: $91.67
Potential profit: $82.04
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$12.38

Yes position

Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $4.12
Potential payout: $91.67
Potential profit: $87.54
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$6.88

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $10.58
Potential payout: $84.62
Potential profit: $74.04
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$0.42

Yes position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $83.17
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$4.83

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $3.06
Potential payout: $70.51
Potential profit: $67.45
Multiplier: 23.04x
User PnL: -$7.94

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $8.77
Potential payout: $70.46
Potential profit: $61.69
Multiplier: 8.03x
User PnL: -$2.01

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.62

Yes position

Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Atlantic Division?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.85

Yes position

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.75

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.64

Yes position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.61

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.92

Yes position

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.49

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Multiplier: 18.35x
User PnL: -$1.89

Yes position

US military draft authorized in 2026?

Implied probability: 8.7%
Multiplier: 11.56x
User PnL: -$3.65

Yes position

Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$3.93

Yes position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Eastern Conference?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$6.37

Yes position

Eric Swalwell charged by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by April 30?