Yes position
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.3K
- Potential profit
- $5.3K
- User PnL
- -$198.22
Polymarket Trader
DancingonMarshmellos
0x8fc775fa9cb390f18515c07e271343118bb9a4bb
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $0
- Realized PnL
- $88.9K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$96.03
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?
Ends Oct 15, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.8K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.52K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.9K
Yes position
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.61K
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.2K
No position
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Ends Sep 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.49K
Yes position
Yoon arrested by Friday?
Ends Jan 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.98K
Yes position
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?
Ends Aug 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.93K
Yes position
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?
Ends Nov 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.18K
Yes position
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.15K
Yes position
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.03K
Yes position
Yoon arrested by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.94K
No position
Will a Republican win Virginia Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.91K
Yes position
Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.91K
No position
Bitcoin above $86,000 on April 4?
Ends Apr 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.76K
Yes position
Israel announces ceasefire by January 16?
Ends Jan 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.68K
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.12K
Yes position
Will the Republican candidate win Iowa by 10.0% or more?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.06K
Yes position
Will there be a US Government shutdown?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05K
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1K
Yes position
Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $983.4
Yes position
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?
Ends Aug 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $939.01
Yes position
Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $872.43
Yes position
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $867.09
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?No 0.9% 924.67 shares
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?Yes 80% 828 shares
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?Yes 4% 2,621.57 shares
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?Yes 80% 8,557.26 shares
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?Yes 79% 5,636.91 shares
- Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?Yes 36% 285.23 shares
- Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?Yes 5% 279.61 shares
- Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?Yes 38% 100.48 shares
- Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?Yes 39% 130.52 shares
- Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?Yes 97% 38.13 shares
- Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?Yes 56% 1,930 shares
- Will Mikie Sherrill win by 6-9%?Yes 5% 3,246.26 shares