Polymarket Trader

failstober

@failstonerPM

0x90ed5bffbffbfc344aa1195572d89719a398b5bc

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $191.65K
Realized PnL: $678.74K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 9.2%
Current value: $37.88K
Potential payout: $413.94K
Potential profit: $376.07K
Multiplier: 10.93x
User PnL: -$29.58K

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $9.81K
Potential payout: $386.28K
Potential profit: $376.47K
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$69.92

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $191.88K
Potential profit: $191.88K
User PnL: -$10.56K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $4.18K
Potential payout: $185.94K
Potential profit: $181.76K
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: $784.3

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $18.47K
Potential payout: $176.72K
Potential profit: $158.26K
Multiplier: 9.57x
User PnL: -$1.99K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $101.1K
Potential profit: $101.1K
User PnL: -$11.56K

Yes position

Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100.92K
Potential profit: $100.92K
User PnL: -$712.63

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $96.24K
Potential payout: $96.39K
Potential profit: $144.58
User PnL: $79.67K

Yes position

Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $59.81K
Potential profit: $59.81K
User PnL: -$2.49K

Yes position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $51.88K
Potential profit: $51.88K
User PnL: -$19.06K

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 33.4%
Current value: $15.03K
Potential payout: $45.06K
Potential profit: $30.03K
Multiplier: 3.00x
User PnL: -$2.71K

Yes position

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $1.99K
Potential payout: $44.8K
Potential profit: $42.81K
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: $498.55

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $44.7K
Potential profit: $44.7K
User PnL: -$11.56K

No position

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $44.44K
Potential profit: $44.44K
User PnL: -$2.25K

Yes position

Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28K
Potential profit: $28K
User PnL: -$1.13K

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.09K
Potential profit: $27.09K
User PnL: -$5.5K

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 25.1%
Current value: $6.74K
Potential payout: $26.89K
Potential profit: $20.16K
Multiplier: 3.99x
User PnL: -$774.17

No position

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.41K
Potential profit: $22.41K
User PnL: -$6.13K

Thunder position

Thunder vs. Spurs

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.22K
Potential profit: $22.22K
User PnL: -$3.47K

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.33K
Potential profit: $13.33K
User PnL: -$1.5K

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.18K
Potential profit: $12.18K
User PnL: -$124.5

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.67K
Potential profit: $10.67K
User PnL: -$1.28K

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $666
Potential payout: $10.02K
Potential profit: $9.35K
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: -$185.28

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 7.3%
Current value: $651.25
Potential payout: $8.98K
Potential profit: $8.33K
Multiplier: 13.79x
User PnL: $320.4

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120.47K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $93.49K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

Ends Jan 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.29K

No position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $42.13K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

Ends Jan 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.28K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $26.97K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

Ends Jan 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.11K

No position

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $22.67K

No position

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

Ends Jan 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $21.62K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.24K

No position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.7K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.26K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.05K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.89K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

Ends Dec 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.76K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

Ends Jan 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17.72K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.17K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.75K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.59K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.11K

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.79K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.17K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.09K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.41K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 2.6% 110,456.66 shares
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 2.6% 5,555 shares
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 2.9% 4,444 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 6% 4,444 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 23.7% 1,518.51 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 23.4% 1,779.55 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 23.9% 5,402.38 shares
Thunder vs. Spurs

Thunder 34% 5,555 shares
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

No 92% 10,998.18 shares
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

No 99.7% 11,111 shares
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 0.7% 3,331 shares
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Yes 0.7% 469.55 shares