Itami

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $4.05
Potential payout: $207.92
Potential profit: $203.86
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$0.95

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 10.1%
Current value: $18.84
Potential payout: $187.5
Potential profit: $168.66
Multiplier: 9.95x
User PnL: -$11.16

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 12.3%
Current value: $18.3
Potential payout: $149.36
Potential profit: $131.06
Multiplier: 8.16x
User PnL: -$7.39

No position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $93.57
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $49.29
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $83.57

Yes position

Will Silvia Salis be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

Ends Dec 31, 2028

Implied probability: 7.6%
Current value: $9.92
Potential payout: $130.47
Potential profit: $120.55
Multiplier: 13.16x
User PnL: $0.29

Yes position

Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $117.65
Potential profit: $117.65
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 4.4%
Current value: $5.02
Potential payout: $114.11
Potential profit: $109.09
Multiplier: 22.73x
User PnL: -$12.98

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $42.7
Potential payout: $108.11
Potential profit: $65.41
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: $2.7

Yes position

Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $1.36
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $89.55
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: $0.36

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $25.88
Potential payout: $72.99
Potential profit: $47.12
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: $15.88

No position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $66.43
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $5
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $16.43

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 78%
Current value: $49.45
Potential payout: $63.44
Potential profit: $13.99
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: $23.44

Yes position

Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.00% and 6.49%?

Ends Jan 12, 2027

Implied probability: 6.8%
Current value: $3.72
Potential payout: $55.16
Potential profit: $51.44
Multiplier: 14.81x
User PnL: $0.71

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Implied probability: 24%
Current value: $10.87
Potential payout: $45.29
Potential profit: $34.42
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: -$8.15

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $43.32
Potential profit: $43.32
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?

Ends Jan 10, 2026

Implied probability: 21.8%
Current value: $9.1
Potential payout: $41.73
Potential profit: $32.64
Multiplier: 4.59x
User PnL: -$9.48

Yes position

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $10.04
Potential payout: $39.36
Potential profit: $29.32
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $3.13
Potential payout: $31.25
Potential profit: $28.13
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$1.88

Yes position

Chirayu Rana divorced?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$1.8

No position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?

Implied probability: 80%
Current value: $23.4
Potential payout: $29.26
Potential profit: $5.85
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $13.4

Yes position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $3
Potential payout: $28.57
Potential profit: $25.57
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$7

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.02
Potential profit: $25.02
User PnL: -$9.76

Yes position

Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.73
Potential profit: $22.73
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.27
Potential profit: $20.27
User PnL: -$15

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.2

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 21.9%
Multiplier: 4.58x
User PnL: $29.82

Yes position

Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.94

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.33

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,150 (HIGH) in June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.32

Yes position

Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.88

Yes position

Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.85

Yes position

Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02?

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.73

No position

Will the Bank of Brazil lower the Selic rate after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.22

Yes position

Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.25

Yes position

Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.93

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $9.75

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.44

No position

Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.38

Yes position

Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.08

Yes position

Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.97

Yes position

Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.54

Yes position

Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.34

Yes position

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 63%
Multiplier: 1.59x
User PnL: $7.06

Norway position

Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance