0x9182AB8157689Aa8Fdb58aEcA518e3fbEd0b3368-1768191988443

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $59.57
Potential payout: $4.11K
Potential profit: $4.05K
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$9.86

Yes position

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $49.88
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $1.15K
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: -$2.11

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.4%
Current value: $141.01
Potential payout: $1.14K
Potential profit: $1K
Multiplier: 8.10x
User PnL: $16.02

Yes position

Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Implied probability: 23.3%
Current value: $253.05
Potential payout: $1.09K
Potential profit: $835.34
Multiplier: 4.30x
User PnL: $161.56

No position

Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $974.69
Potential profit: $974.69
User PnL: -$190

Yes position

Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 3%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $956.95
Potential profit: $956.95
User PnL: -$70

Yes position

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Implied probability: 7.9%
Current value: $70.21
Potential payout: $894.41
Potential profit: $824.2
Multiplier: 12.74x
User PnL: -$4.79

Yes position

Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Implied probability: 33%
Current value: $276.07
Potential payout: $836.58
Potential profit: $560.51
Multiplier: 3.03x
User PnL: -$51.24

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.9%
Current value: $111.06
Potential payout: $801.87
Potential profit: $690.81
Multiplier: 7.22x
User PnL: $1.06

Yes position

Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 3% and 6%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $767.46
Potential profit: $767.46
User PnL: -$60

Yes position

Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 6% and 9%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $687.81
Potential profit: $687.81
User PnL: -$70

No position

Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates in May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $556.18
Potential profit: $556.18
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $238.82
Potential payout: $492.41
Potential profit: $253.59
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: $57.82

Yes position

Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 47%
Current value: $226.22
Potential payout: $481.31
Potential profit: $255.1
Multiplier: 2.13x
User PnL: $6.22

Yes position

Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $137.05
Potential payout: $397.38
Potential profit: $260.32
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: $9.06

Yes position

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Implied probability: 47%
Current value: $131.21
Potential payout: $279.18
Potential profit: $147.96
Multiplier: 2.13x
User PnL: $28.21

Yes position

Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $176.85
Potential payout: $274.19
Potential profit: $97.34
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $6.86

Yes position

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 9.3%
Current value: $23.06
Potential payout: $249.3
Potential profit: $226.24
Multiplier: 10.81x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Implied probability: 45%
Current value: $83.21
Potential payout: $184.91
Potential profit: $101.7
Multiplier: 2.22x
User PnL: -$16.79

Yes position

Will the People's Bank of China decrease rates in April?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $158.38
Potential profit: $158.38
User PnL: -$0.95

Yes position

Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $16.13
Potential payout: $140.24
Potential profit: $124.11
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$8.87

Yes position

Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Implied probability: 31.5%
Current value: $36.68
Potential payout: $116.46
Potential profit: $79.77
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: $1.68

Yes position

Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $1.72
Potential payout: $104.18
Potential profit: $102.46
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$0.78

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 37.4%
Current value: $34.5
Potential payout: $92.24
Potential profit: $57.74
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: $0.26

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.58K

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.61K

No position

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.42K

Yes position

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: $830.32

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $789.61

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $665.98

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $637.63

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $598.84

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $436.22

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $323.89

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $286.01

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $278.07

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $257.72

No position

US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $247.32

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $187.6

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 82.3%
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $173.24

Yes position

Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $171.47

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $169.61

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?