re4der

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $157.5
Potential payout: $900.01
Potential profit: $742.51
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$61.82

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $63.45
Potential payout: $845.96
Potential profit: $782.51
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$349.91

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 51%
Current value: $394.23
Potential payout: $773
Potential profit: $378.77
Multiplier: 1.96x
User PnL: -$128.89

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $695.1
Potential payout: $700
Potential profit: $4.9
User PnL: $226.25

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $513
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $87
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $15

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 25.6%
Current value: $142.98
Potential payout: $559.59
Potential profit: $416.61
Multiplier: 3.91x
User PnL: -$22.03

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 49.5%
Current value: $276.97
Potential payout: $559.54
Potential profit: $282.57
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: $74.03

Yes position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $549.72
Potential payout: $549.99
Potential profit: $0.28
User PnL: $216.06

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $391.15
Potential payout: $492.01
Potential profit: $100.86
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $178.74

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $2.8
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $397.2
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$185.6

Yes position

Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $306
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $94
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 19.8%
Current value: $79
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $321
Multiplier: 5.06x
User PnL: $5

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $208.47
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $91.53
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$52.53

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $6.8
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $193.2
Multiplier: 29.41x
User PnL: -$73.2

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $6.6
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $193.4
Multiplier: 30.30x
User PnL: -$14.6

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $4.38
Potential payout: $125.08
Potential profit: $120.7
Multiplier: 28.57x
User PnL: -$12.62

Natus Vincere position

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $112
Potential profit: $112
User PnL: -$45.37

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.3%
Current value: $95.25
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $4.75
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $9.25

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$14.4

Over position

Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.82
Potential profit: $41.82
User PnL: -$23

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.35K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $820.86

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $717.51

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $696

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $378.86

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $375.86

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $341.05

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $340

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $326.54

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $293.86

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $238

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $199.25

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $197

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $195.63

Team Falcons position

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $174.58

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $158.24

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $139.4

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $114.16

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $112.93

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.62

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $98.83

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?