No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 75%
- Current value
- $445.1
- Potential payout
- $593.46
- Potential profit
- $148.37
- Multiplier
- 1.33x
- User PnL
- -$18.6
Polymarket Trader
Notard
0x91c92bca4f5c8d240dc7af7945ba2ac18025d319
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.62K
- Realized PnL
- $3.51K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 17
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.4%
- Current value
- $541.26
- Potential payout
- $555.7
- Potential profit
- $14.45
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $16.26
No position
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $439.43
- Potential payout
- $442.75
- Potential profit
- $3.32
- User PnL
- $9.87
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $377.58
- Potential payout
- $383.72
- Potential profit
- $6.14
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $18.58
No position
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $351.51
- Potential payout
- $359.79
- Potential profit
- $8.28
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $11.52
No position
Israel closes its airspace by July 7?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $308.03
- Potential payout
- $308.96
- Potential profit
- $0.93
- User PnL
- $8.03
No position
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $258.05
- Potential payout
- $275.99
- Potential profit
- $17.94
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $8.05
No position
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.4%
- Current value
- $254.92
- Potential payout
- $261.86
- Potential profit
- $6.94
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $4.92
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $238.51
- Potential payout
- $257.85
- Potential profit
- $19.34
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $19.51
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $200.71
- Potential payout
- $203.46
- Potential profit
- $2.75
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.71
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $180.94
- Potential profit
- $180.94
- User PnL
- -$120
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $158.14
- Potential profit
- $158.14
- User PnL
- -$55
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70%
- Current value
- $107.84
- Potential payout
- $154.06
- Potential profit
- $46.22
- Multiplier
- 1.43x
- User PnL
- -$16.66
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $138.89
- Potential profit
- $138.89
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $121.86
- Potential profit
- $121.86
- User PnL
- -$63.6
N
No position
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $99.46
- Potential payout
- $108.7
- Potential profit
- $9.24
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.54
No position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.5
- Potential profit
- $12.5
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $614.03
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $334.83
No position
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $270.9
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $207.66
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $177.2
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $176.3
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $140.81
No position
Israel strikes Iran by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $135.47
No position
Israel military action on Damascus by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $134.92
No position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $123.78
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $117.84
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?
Ends Aug 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112.63
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $104.46
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $94.5
No position
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.46
Yes position
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- $82.92
No position
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.46
No position
Israel strikes Yemen by August 15?
Ends Aug 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76.75
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.45
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.58
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.78
No position
Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.56
No position
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by January 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.3
No position
Another Israel strike on Yemen by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.11
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?No 93% 20.43 shares
- Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?No 74% 5 shares
- Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?No 74% 135.14 shares
- Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?No 75% 53.33 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?No 98.3% 203.46 shares
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?No 92% 108.7 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?No 86% 58.14 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?No 86% 116.28 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by July 31?No 93% 53.76 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by July 15?No 97.4% 51.33 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?No 96.7% 103.41 shares
- Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?No 98.1% 50.97 shares