leCommissaire

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $4.12K
Potential payout: $4.21K
Potential profit: $86.32
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $142.3

No position

Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $3.34K
Potential payout: $3.37K
Potential profit: $30.36
User PnL: $1.05K

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $25.84
Potential payout: $2.25K
Potential profit: $2.22K
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: $7.81

Yes position

Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $123.46
Potential payout: $2.06K
Potential profit: $1.93K
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$23.15

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $1.55K
Potential payout: $1.9K
Potential profit: $351.06
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $81.81

Yes position

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 64%
Current value: $874.92
Potential payout: $1.37K
Potential profit: $492.15
Multiplier: 1.56x
User PnL: $156.71

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $40.62
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.21K
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: -$13.27

Yes position

Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $138.78
Potential payout: $1.07K
Potential profit: $928.78
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: -$130.53

Yes position

Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $6.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $993.5
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$3.41

Yes position

Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $5.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $994.5
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $5.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $994.5
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$21

Yes position

Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $6.5
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $993.49
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 40%
Current value: $360
Potential payout: $900
Potential profit: $540
Multiplier: 2.50x
User PnL: -$58.89

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $126
Potential payout: $900
Potential profit: $774
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: $4

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.33
Potential payout: $888.01
Potential profit: $886.68
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$22.55

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.38
Potential payout: $750
Potential profit: $749.63
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$8.58

Yes position

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $15.75
Potential payout: $700
Potential profit: $684.25
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$0.65

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 24.4%
Current value: $158.28
Potential payout: $650
Potential profit: $491.73
Multiplier: 4.11x
User PnL: -$32.77

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $169.14
Potential payout: $638.28
Potential profit: $469.14
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$7.57

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $5.14
Potential payout: $604.99
Potential profit: $599.85
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$111.5

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $51
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $549
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$7

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $389.14
Potential payout: $560
Potential profit: $170.86
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $16.94

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $13.48
Potential payout: $550
Potential profit: $536.53
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$15.29

Yes position

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $127.1
Potential payout: $540.84
Potential profit: $413.74
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$49.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.17K

No position

Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3K

No position

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.97K

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.52K

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.42K

No position

Will Russia enter Khatnie by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.18K

No position

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.15K

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.06K

No position

Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.88K

No position

Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.61K

No position

Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.54K

No position

Will Russia capture Siversk by October 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.46K

Yes position

Will Russia enter Ternuvate by February 28?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.32K

Yes position

Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August?

Ends Aug 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.29K

Yes position

Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by February 28?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.22K

Yes position

Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.09K

Yes position

Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.07K

No position

Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.06K

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.04K

No position

Will Russia capture Siversk by August 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.01K

Yes position

Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1K

No position

Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $992.95

No position

Will Russia capture Siversk by September 30?