Polymarket Trader

Firstblood

0x927253833a29ff9825f5e3ffec83748765f90a19

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $5.74K
Realized PnL: $2.32K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $3.33K
Potential payout: $3.34K
Potential profit: $15.04
User PnL: $170.32

No position

Xi Jinping out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $1.4K
Potential payout: $1.41K
Potential profit: $4.93
User PnL: $48.77

No position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $463.16
Potential profit: $463.16
User PnL: -$84

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.7%
Current value: $374.8
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $25.2
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $24.8

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$29

No position

GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $342.36
Potential profit: $342.36
User PnL: -$87

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $50
Potential payout: $227.27
Potential profit: $177.27
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $198.2
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $1.8
User PnL: $9.6

No position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $173.88
Potential payout: $189.11
Potential profit: $15.22
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $3.88

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $103.15
Potential payout: $126.58
Potential profit: $23.43
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $3.15

150k position

Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.83
Potential profit: $83.83
User PnL: -$51.97

No position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$30

No position

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $49.26
Potential payout: $49.99
Potential profit: $0.72
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $8.27

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $43.92
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $4.08
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $6

No position

Will General Dynamics (GD) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Oct 24, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $42
Potential profit: $42
User PnL: -$12.49

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $13.73
Potential payout: $15.87
Potential profit: $2.14
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $3.73

Yes position

Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.28
Potential profit: $1.28
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $490.12

Yes position

TikTok sale announced in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $351.13

No position

Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Oct 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $277.5

No position

Xi Jinping out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $189.63

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $168.22

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $109.58

No position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.45

No position

Grokipedia released by October 24?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.7

No position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.27

Yes position

Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.4

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in October?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.49

Shevchenko position

UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.57

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.5

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.94

No position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.64

Yes position

Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on October 8?

Ends Oct 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.29

No position

Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.23

Yes position

Will Procter & Gamble (PG) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Oct 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.2

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.6

No position

Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.39

Yes position

Israel strikes Gaza by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17

No position

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.7

No position

100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?

Ends Nov 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.22

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 63% 15.87 shares
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 88.4% 22.62 shares
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

No 22% 227.27 shares
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 90.1% 166.48 shares
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

No 84% 100 shares
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?

No 98.9% 200 shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?

No 79% 126.58 shares
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?

No 12.1% 171.84 shares
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?

No 13.9% 71.84 shares
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

No 94.7% 267.16 shares
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

No 94.7% 1,056.08 shares
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?

No 97.8% 926.31 shares