Yes position
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $4.32
- Potential payout
- $45.45
- Potential profit
- $41.14
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$5.68
Polymarket Trader
supergauss
0x929b5a1b06f46023605822a36cfc99ee52942205
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $232.88
- Realized PnL
- $59.77
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 22
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $9.98
- Potential payout
- $33.82
- Potential profit
- $23.84
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- -$11.18
No position
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $30.63
- Potential payout
- $32.58
- Potential profit
- $1.95
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.63
No position
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $20.12
- Potential payout
- $23.53
- Potential profit
- $3.41
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $0.12
No position
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $21.74
- Potential payout
- $23.26
- Potential profit
- $1.51
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $1.74
No position
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $21.35
- Potential payout
- $22.73
- Potential profit
- $1.38
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1.35
No position
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $11.42
- Potential payout
- $18.87
- Potential profit
- $7.45
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- $1.42
Yes position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12%
- Current value
- $2.18
- Potential payout
- $18.18
- Potential profit
- $16
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $15.98
- Potential payout
- $17.86
- Potential profit
- $1.87
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.98
No position
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77%
- Current value
- $12.62
- Potential payout
- $16.39
- Potential profit
- $3.77
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- $2.62
No position
Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $11.4
- Potential payout
- $13.27
- Potential profit
- $1.86
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$1.6
No position
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $10.46
- Potential payout
- $13.16
- Potential profit
- $2.7
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $0.46
No position
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $11.4
- Potential payout
- $12.2
- Potential profit
- $0.79
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $1.4
No position
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $11.21
- Potential payout
- $11.24
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $1.21
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $10.49
- Potential payout
- $10.63
- Potential profit
- $0.13
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.49
No position
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Current value
- $10.2
- Potential payout
- $10.4
- Potential profit
- $0.19
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $5.96
- Potential payout
- $7.32
- Potential profit
- $1.35
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
No position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 62.3%
- Current value
- $2.96
- Potential payout
- $4.76
- Potential profit
- $1.8
- Multiplier
- 1.61x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Yes position
Epstein client list released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $0.04
- Potential payout
- $3.85
- Potential profit
- $3.81
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.96
No position
Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.6%
- Current value
- $3.5
- Potential payout
- $3.7
- Potential profit
- $0.2
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1.5
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $3.02
- Potential payout
- $3.26
- Potential profit
- $0.24
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will John Kerry be arrested before 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $1.89
- Potential payout
- $2.02
- Potential profit
- $0.13
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.11
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
North Korea missile test/launch by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.54
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.18
Yes position
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 women's singles tournament at the Miami Open?
Ends Mar 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.36
No position
Will Iran strike Syria in March?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.13
Yes position
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game?
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.75
No position
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by March 31, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.29
No position
Will France strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $1.91
Yes position
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.9
No position
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.9
Yes position
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.76
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.75
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.51
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3
No position
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25
No position
Will Trump say "Geneva Convention" during Medal of Honor ceremony on March 2?
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25
Nothing position
Nothing Ever Happens: May
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05
No position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.95
Yes position
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.87
No position
Will fewer than 140 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.86
No position
Will Russia capture Toretske by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.84
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.81
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.79
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 96.1% 6.02 shares
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?No 82% 12.2 shares
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?No 94.1% 10.63 shares
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No 82% 7.32 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 83% 6.02 shares
- Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?No 78.5% 1.27 shares
- Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?No 85% 23.53 shares
- Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?No 92.1% 32.58 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No 80% 18.98 shares
- US x Cuba military clash in 2026?No 53% 18.87 shares
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No 28.1% 69.15 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?No 86.1% 5.81 shares