Polymarket Trader

spitfire

0x92d50cc2ac104a2f7b06cd2704ae39747feda491

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $641.6
Realized PnL: $4.18K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $9.42
Potential payout: $384.62
Potential profit: $375.19
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$0.58

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $37.61
Potential payout: $275.55
Potential profit: $237.94
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$7.39

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.6%
Current value: $32.2
Potential payout: $256.57
Potential profit: $224.37
Multiplier: 7.97x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $13.93
Potential payout: $214.29
Potential profit: $200.36
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$1.07

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.4%
Current value: $12.21
Potential payout: $192.31
Potential profit: $180.1
Multiplier: 15.75x
User PnL: $2.21

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $35.15
Potential payout: $190.53
Potential profit: $155.37
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: $0.15

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 7.4%
Current value: $13.74
Potential payout: $186.92
Potential profit: $173.18
Multiplier: 13.61x
User PnL: -$6.26

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 11.8%
Current value: $20.26
Potential payout: $172.41
Potential profit: $152.16
Multiplier: 8.51x
User PnL: $0.26

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 64%
Current value: $94.12
Potential payout: $147.06
Potential profit: $52.94
Multiplier: 1.56x
User PnL: -$5.88

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $104.22
Potential payout: $120.48
Potential profit: $16.27
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $4.22

Yes position

McDonald's CEO out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $1.89
Potential payout: $118.26
Potential profit: $116.37
Multiplier: 62.50x
User PnL: -$8.11

Yes position

Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $20.96
Potential payout: $102.26
Potential profit: $81.3
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $0.96

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $21.36
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $69.55
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$3.64

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.7%
Current value: $66.19
Potential payout: $69.93
Potential profit: $3.74
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $16.19

Yes position

Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $14.74
Potential payout: $51.72
Potential profit: $36.99
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $9.76
Potential payout: $47.62
Potential profit: $37.86
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?

Ends Nov 1, 2026

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $31.23
Potential payout: $44.3
Potential profit: $13.07
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: -$3.77

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $17.66
Potential payout: $42.55
Potential profit: $24.89
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$2.34

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $21.32
Potential payout: $37.74
Potential profit: $16.42
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $1.32

Yes position

Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $15.18
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $20.54
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $0.18

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $18.52
Potential payout: $32.79
Potential profit: $14.27
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$1.48

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $15.13
Potential payout: $26.32
Potential profit: $11.18
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $0.13

Yes position

Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 40%
Current value: $9.76
Potential payout: $24.39
Potential profit: $14.63
Multiplier: 2.50x
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $5.03
Potential payout: $19.74
Potential profit: $14.71
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$4.97

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?

Ends Jun 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $507.14

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $474.71

Knicks position

Spurs vs. Knicks

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $340.46

Yes position

Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals?

Ends Jun 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $316.61

Yes position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $264.78

Timberwolves position

Timberwolves vs. Lakers

Ends May 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $222.58

Knicks position

Cavaliers vs. Knicks

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $184.7

Nuggets position

Nuggets vs. Thunder

Ends May 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $174.17

Yes position

Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $162.22

Yes position

Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference?

Ends Jun 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $159.77

Cavaliers position

Cavaliers vs. Pistons

Ends May 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $143.99

Knicks position

Knicks vs. Celtics

Ends May 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $136.67

Pacers position

Pacers vs. Cavaliers

Ends May 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $135.19

Yes position

Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.93

Raptors position

Raptors vs. Thunder

Ends Jan 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100

Yes position

Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals?

Ends Jun 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $93.74

Knicks position

Knicks vs. Spurs

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.86

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.31

Nuggets position

Thunder vs. Nuggets

Ends May 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.03

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.7

Warriors position

Warriors vs. Timberwolves

Ends May 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.19

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.57

Knicks position

Knicks vs. Spurs

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.11

Yes position

Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-3?

Ends Jun 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?

Yes 7% 214.29 shares
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 41% 24.39 shares
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?

Yes 42% 35.71 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?

Yes 62% 16.13 shares
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?

Yes 65% 15.38 shares
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?

Yes 21% 47.62 shares
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 2.6% 384.62 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 18.5% 108.11 shares
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?

Yes 57% 35.09 shares
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?

Yes 62% 24.19 shares
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?

Yes 79% 44.3 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Yes 68% 147.06 shares