No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $166.45
- Potential payout
- $174.29
- Potential profit
- $7.84
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $2.45
Polymarket Trader
0x932F8226B89cok
0x932f8226b89cc5adb5dac6c60e1c013c5c0cfe5e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $403.38
- Realized PnL
- $493.27
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 90%
- Current value
- $38.76
- Potential payout
- $43.07
- Potential profit
- $4.31
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $1.76
Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 27.6%
- Current value
- $11.76
- Potential payout
- $42.62
- Potential profit
- $30.86
- Multiplier
- 3.62x
- User PnL
- $1.76
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.8%
- Current value
- $7.79
- Potential payout
- $39.45
- Potential profit
- $31.66
- Multiplier
- 5.06x
- User PnL
- $0.79
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $33.07
- Potential payout
- $35
- Potential profit
- $1.93
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1.22
N
No position
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $17.12
- Potential payout
- $27.39
- Potential profit
- $10.27
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $0.12
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.7%
- Current value
- $1.79
- Potential payout
- $26.96
- Potential profit
- $25.17
- Multiplier
- 15.04x
- User PnL
- -$1.21
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.6%
- Current value
- $22.83
- Potential payout
- $26.07
- Potential profit
- $3.23
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.14
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $23.05
- Potential payout
- $25.2
- Potential profit
- $2.14
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $1.95
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.2%
- Current value
- $3.54
- Potential payout
- $24.84
- Potential profit
- $21.3
- Multiplier
- 7.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.46
No position
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $18.66
- Potential payout
- $22.08
- Potential profit
- $3.42
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$0.34
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $11.87
- Potential payout
- $12.44
- Potential profit
- $0.57
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- -$0.13
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $10.17
- Potential payout
- $10.67
- Potential profit
- $0.51
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.17
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Current value
- $3.46
- Potential payout
- $6.85
- Potential profit
- $3.39
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- $0.46
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $5.09
- Potential payout
- $5.27
- Potential profit
- $0.17
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.09
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.3%
- Current value
- $5.04
- Potential payout
- $5.19
- Potential profit
- $0.14
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $5.04
- Potential payout
- $5.12
- Potential profit
- $0.08
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.04
Yes position
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $2.52
- Potential payout
- $4.39
- Potential profit
- $1.87
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$0.48
Yes position
Will France win on 2026-06-22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $3.92
- Potential payout
- $4.33
- Potential profit
- $0.41
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.7%
- Current value
- $3.03
- Potential payout
- $3.2
- Potential profit
- $0.17
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.02
Yes position
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $1.98
- Potential payout
- $3.08
- Potential profit
- $1.09
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- -$0.02
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 72%
- Current value
- $2.18
- Potential payout
- $3.03
- Potential profit
- $0.85
- Multiplier
- 1.39x
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $2.28
- Potential payout
- $3.01
- Potential profit
- $0.74
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Current value
- $1.96
- Potential payout
- $2.82
- Potential profit
- $0.86
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 2PM ET
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $68.7
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.97
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 16?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $41.1
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $38.74
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $34.8
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?
Ends Jan 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $22.57
No position
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.22
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.66
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.44
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.43
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.84
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.13
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.68
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 17?
Ends Jan 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.44
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.99
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.22
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.22
No position
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.84
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $10.77
Yes position
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.03
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?
Ends Jan 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.6
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 16?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.54
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 15?
Ends Jan 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.3
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.05
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel closes its airspace by July 31?No 85% 3.53 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 93% 3.01 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by July 31?No 86% 2.33 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by July 15?No 93% 2.15 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?No 96.7% 3.1 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by July 31?No 86% 11.63 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Yes 25.4% 19.69 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Yes 21.8% 22.94 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 66% 3.03 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 89% 3.37 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?No 97.8% 16 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 73% 3.01 shares