justlookingdontmindme

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $0.83
Potential payout: $79.34
Potential profit: $78.51
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$9.73

Yes position

Will Mike Maignan win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $6.71
Potential payout: $70.66
Potential profit: $63.95
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$2.67

Yes position

Will Deep Fission's market cap be at least $3.0B at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $0.78
Potential payout: $65
Potential profit: $64.22
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$8.39

Yes position

Will Portugal be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $6
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $54
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$2.4

Yes position

Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $2.5B and $3.0B at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $0.57
Potential payout: $59.73
Potential profit: $59.16
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$7.92

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $53.72
Potential profit: $53.67
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: -$6.93

Yes position

Will Alisson Becker win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $6
Potential payout: $50.01
Potential profit: $44.01
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$1.13

Yes position

Will Claude Code Commits be between 650.0k and 700.0k on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 33%
Current value: $15.37
Potential payout: $46.64
Potential profit: $31.27
Multiplier: 3.03x
User PnL: $8.74

Yes position

Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$4.6

Yes position

Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$5.02

Yes position

Will Trump post "Ted" or "Cruz" on Truth Social this week?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

3Jane FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $1.8
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $38.2
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Senne Lammens win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $4.38
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $35.62
Multiplier: 9.13x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $145B by June 30?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $1.95
Potential payout: $39
Potential profit: $37.05
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: -$3.51

Yes position

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 6.6%
Current value: $2.38
Potential payout: $36
Potential profit: $33.62
Multiplier: 15.15x
User PnL: -$2.65

Yes position

Will Scotland be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $1.47
Potential payout: $33.94
Potential profit: $32.47
Multiplier: 23.04x
User PnL: -$3.62

Yes position

Will Diogo Costa win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $2.3
Potential payout: $30.72
Potential profit: $28.42
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$0.83

Yes position

Will anyone say "Six Seven" during Rick and Morty E4 S9?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.94
Potential profit: $27.94
User PnL: -$4.11

Yes position

Will Croatia be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $3.06
Potential payout: $26.64
Potential profit: $23.58
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.93

No position

Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E4 S9?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.37
Potential profit: $23.37
User PnL: -$3.37

Yes position

Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.06
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.94
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$2.24

Yes position

Will Trump say "Satan" in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $3.1
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $16.9
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will Trump say "Peanut" this week?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Qatar be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 10.2%
Current value: $2.03
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $17.97
Multiplier: 9.85x
User PnL: -$0.57

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 6?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.65

Yes position

Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $1.8

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 6?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.6

Yes position

Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.57

Yes position

Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.09

Yes position

Will B8 qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.96

Yes position

SHEIN IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18%
Multiplier: 5.57x
User PnL: $0.43

Yes position

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $0.4

Yes position

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

Will Uruguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 21%
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.15

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.12

Yes position

Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 17%
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 35%
Multiplier: 2.86x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 34.5%
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 14%
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$0.33

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.56

Yes position

Will Top Esports win LPL 2026 Split 2?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.6

Yes position

Will anyone say "Ninja" during Rick and Morty E4 S9?