Polymarket Trader

david420

0x9416b0ca9df006a64def65021451caba9adf5a15

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $2.31K
Realized PnL: $26.03K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.5K
Potential profit: $16.5K
User PnL: -$451.97

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 13.2%
Current value: $628.77
Potential payout: $4.76K
Potential profit: $4.13K
Multiplier: 7.58x
User PnL: $10.77

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $279.5
Potential payout: $1.3K
Potential profit: $1.02K
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: $35.5

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $591.67
Potential payout: $1.03K
Potential profit: $437.32
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $191.67

Yes position

Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $848.25
Potential profit: $848.25
User PnL: -$400

Yes position

Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 23 above $390?

Ends Mar 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $819.99
Potential profit: $819.99
User PnL: -$301.44

Yes position

Grok 4.4 released by June 15?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $715.97
Potential profit: $715.97
User PnL: -$100

Australia position

ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $680.38
Potential profit: $680.38
User PnL: -$200

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $524.18
Potential profit: $524.18
User PnL: -$202

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $510.14
Potential profit: $510.14
User PnL: -$37.74

Yes position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $355.12
Potential payout: $405.86
Potential profit: $50.73
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $55.12

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 25%
Current value: $100
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $300
Multiplier: 4.00x
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $84
Potential payout: $399.99
Potential profit: $315.99
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: -$28

Yes position

Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $275.05
Potential profit: $275.05
User PnL: -$200

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $247.73
Potential profit: $247.73
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $13.3
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $186.7
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $11.3
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $188.7
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $8.9
Potential payout: $199.99
Potential profit: $191.09
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $130.99
Potential payout: $199.98
Potential profit: $68.99
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $189.18
Potential profit: $189.18
User PnL: -$100

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.41
Potential profit: $142.41
User PnL: -$30

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $135.79
Potential profit: $135.79
User PnL: -$50

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $125
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 89.7%
Current value: $104.42
Potential payout: $116.41
Potential profit: $11.99
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $4.42

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.16K

No position

Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.39K

Yes position

Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?

Ends Aug 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.26K

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.76K

Yes position

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.34K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.01K

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $914.78

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $902.19

Yes position

Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $901.01

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

Ends Dec 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $892.26

Demoor position

Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor

Ends Dec 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $831.17

Yes position

Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $597.23

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $528.97

Up position

Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on January 28?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $502.25

Yes position

Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $493.55

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $472.81

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $461.69

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 17?

Ends Oct 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $439.33

Yes position

Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $420.06

Yes position

Will the Red Bloc win by 4–7 seats?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $417.35

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $356.19

No position

Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $345.11

No position

Brown University shooter arrested by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $321.76

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 26-1?

Ends Feb 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $309.42

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 8% 217.96 shares
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 3.3% 319.22 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 0.2% 6,250 shares
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026?

Yes 99.9% 20 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET

Down 15% 6.67 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET

Down 15% 6.67 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET

Down 15% 6.67 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET

Down 15% 6.67 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET

Down 16% 6.25 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET

Down 16% 6.25 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET

Down 16% 6.25 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET

Down 17% 5.88 shares