Praescientia

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $15.48
Potential payout: $407.31
Potential profit: $391.83
Multiplier: 26.32x
User PnL: -$36.72

Yes position

Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.18
Potential payout: $357.14
Potential profit: $356.96
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$49.82

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $88.46
Potential payout: $333.81
Potential profit: $245.35
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$3.81

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $207.84
Potential payout: $322.23
Potential profit: $114.39
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $123.75

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $12.73
Potential payout: $318.18
Potential profit: $305.45
Multiplier: 25.00x
User PnL: -$21.86

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $212.33
Potential payout: $305.55
Potential profit: $93.22
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $9.41

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $35.43
Potential payout: $283.46
Potential profit: $248.03
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$97.57

Yes position

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $68.75
Potential payout: $269.6
Potential profit: $200.85
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$32.11

Yes position

Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $7.55
Potential payout: $243.67
Potential profit: $236.12
Multiplier: 32.26x
User PnL: -$19.25

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 23.9%
Current value: $54.54
Potential payout: $228.67
Potential profit: $174.13
Multiplier: 4.19x
User PnL: $6.52

Yes position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $218.1
Potential payout: $218.21
Potential profit: $0.11
User PnL: $88.17

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $139.99
Potential payout: $207.39
Potential profit: $67.4
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: $54.96

Yes position

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $114
Potential payout: $198.25
Potential profit: $84.26
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: -$2.49

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $149.64
Potential payout: $185.89
Potential profit: $36.25
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $5.33

Yes position

Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $26.87
Potential payout: $179.16
Potential profit: $152.29
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$4.39

Yes position

Kurds declare independence from Iran?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $1.19
Potential payout: $170
Potential profit: $168.81
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$53.21

No position

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Implied probability: 81%
Current value: $122.41
Potential payout: $151.12
Potential profit: $28.71
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $6.64

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 97.8%
Current value: $144.89
Potential payout: $148.22
Potential profit: $3.34
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $5.37

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June?

Implied probability: 36.4%
Current value: $51.97
Potential payout: $142.77
Potential profit: $90.8
Multiplier: 2.75x
User PnL: -$12.6

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 26%
Current value: $35.22
Potential payout: $135.47
Potential profit: $100.25
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: -$20.38

No position

Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June?

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $120.9
Potential payout: $130
Potential profit: $9.1
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $6

Yes position

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $14.38
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $110.63
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$25.63

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $103.32
Potential payout: $122.27
Potential profit: $18.95
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $7.95

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 74.3%
Current value: $86.04
Potential payout: $115.8
Potential profit: $29.76
Multiplier: 1.35x
User PnL: $6.56

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $102.35
Potential payout: $114.36
Potential profit: $12.01
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $1.72

No position

Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 56.8%
Current value: $62.58
Potential payout: $110.19
Potential profit: $47.61
Multiplier: 1.76x
User PnL: $41.59

No position

Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $62.7
Potential payout: $105.47
Potential profit: $42.77
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $38.37

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $103.88
Potential profit: $103.83
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$79.94

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.95
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$39.95

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

Implied probability: 21.2%
Current value: $21.05
Potential payout: $99.54
Potential profit: $78.49
Multiplier: 4.73x
User PnL: -$11.8

Yes position

Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 75.9%
Current value: $71.03
Potential payout: $93.58
Potential profit: $22.55
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: -$8.96

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 16.1%
Current value: $14.75
Potential payout: $91.87
Potential profit: $77.12
Multiplier: 6.23x
User PnL: $0.23

Yes position

Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man?

Ends Dec 18, 2026

Implied probability: 80%
Current value: $72.9
Potential payout: $91.13
Potential profit: $18.23
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $3.96

No position

Base FDV above $6B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $62.9
Potential payout: $89.22
Potential profit: $26.32
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: -$1.34

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?

Implied probability: 50.8%
Current value: $45.15
Potential payout: $88.88
Potential profit: $43.73
Multiplier: 1.97x
User PnL: $5.16

No position

Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $63.04
Potential payout: $86.95
Potential profit: $23.91
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $23.04

No position

Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 21, 2027

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $72.25
Potential payout: $86.53
Potential profit: $14.28
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $27.26

Yes position

Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 4.4%
Current value: $3.76
Potential payout: $85.56
Potential profit: $81.8
Multiplier: 22.73x
User PnL: -$75.81

Yes position

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $24.24
Potential payout: $85.1
Potential profit: $60.86
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: -$15.75

No position

Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $71.48
Potential payout: $80.32
Potential profit: $8.84
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $57.03

No position

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $67.04
Potential payout: $75.75
Potential profit: $8.71
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $17.04

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $73.65
Potential payout: $75
Potential profit: $1.35
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $5.4

No position

Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $61.21
Potential payout: $74.19
Potential profit: $12.98
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $9.07

No position

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 67%
Current value: $49.63
Potential payout: $74.07
Potential profit: $24.44
Multiplier: 1.49x
User PnL: $9.63

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Implied probability: 74%
Current value: $54.4
Potential payout: $73.52
Potential profit: $19.12
Multiplier: 1.35x
User PnL: $4.41

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $64.3
Potential payout: $73.49
Potential profit: $9.19
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $4.78

No position

Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026?

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $44.48
Potential payout: $68.96
Potential profit: $24.48
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $4.48

No position

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $61.37
Potential payout: $68.96
Potential profit: $7.59
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $1.38

Yes position

Will Plasma reach $2.00 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 6.2%
Current value: $4.23
Potential payout: $68.71
Potential profit: $64.48
Multiplier: 16.26x
User PnL: -$18.45

No position

Will GTA 6 cost $100+?

Ends Feb 28, 2027

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $63.99
Potential payout: $68.44
Potential profit: $4.45
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $4

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $542.07

No position

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $440.65

No position

Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $429.36

Yes position

Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $365.75

Yes position

Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $301.33

No position

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $299.75

Yes position

Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $281.49

No position

Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $279.88

Yes position

Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Hundred" 25+ times during Memphis Roundtable?

Ends Mar 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $266.44

No position

Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $253.89

No position

Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $250.36

No position

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $243.24

No position

Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.6%?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $235.23

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $233.69

Yes position

Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
User PnL: $221.21

No position

Will Trump say "Uranium" this week?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $214.71

No position

Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $203.45

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $185.82

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $179.7

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 37.7%
Multiplier: 2.66x
User PnL: $178.09

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $166.07

No position

Will Trump say "Most Favored Nation" during Ohio visit?

Ends Mar 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $163.11

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $160.55

Yes position

Will Trump say "NATO" during the FII PRIORITY Summit?

Ends Mar 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $156.4

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $140.11

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $139.29

No position

Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $205-$210 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 23 – Feb 27?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $139

Yes position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.06

Jodar position

Mexican Open: Rafael Jodar vs Cameron Norrie

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $125.03

No position

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $124.03

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123.96

Yes position

Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $122.2

No position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $120.11

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $119.54

No position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
User PnL: $117.56

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113

Yes position

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $112.48

No position

Will Trump say "Fake News" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.99

Yakult Brothers position

Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.53

US position

Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $111.15

Yes position

US strikes Iraq by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108.81

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $107.88

Valentin Vacherot position

Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Valentin Vacherot

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104.33

Yes position

Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 on February 27?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.25

Seoul Thunders position

Seoul Thunders vs. Mobis Phoebus

Ends Mar 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.78

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.36

Vit Kopriva position

Grand Prix Hassan II: Vit Kopriva vs Hamad Medjedovic

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $96.86

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95.68

Yes position

Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by March 31?