Polymarket Trader

xenonliu

@LiuXenonliu

0x94bde001e4a00152490c60bebe2aab120e8c6184

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $66.42K
Realized PnL: $2.88K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.1%
Current value: $4.01K
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $15.99K
Multiplier: 4.99x
User PnL: -$5.99K

No position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 80%
Current value: $15.99K
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $4.01K
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $5.99K

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.7%
Current value: $17.38K
Potential payout: $18.56K
Potential profit: $1.18K
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $33.57

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $11.45K
Potential payout: $11.72K
Potential profit: $269.51
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $185.45

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $7.79K
Potential payout: $7.81K
Potential profit: $19.53
User PnL: $177.28

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $5.34K
Potential payout: $5.35K
Potential profit: $13.39
User PnL: $52.9

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Ends Jun 30, 2027

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $3.06K
Potential payout: $3.5K
Potential profit: $437.5
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: -$7.5

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.25K
Potential profit: $2.25K
User PnL: -$16.5

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.8%
Current value: $281.25
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.22K
Multiplier: 5.33x
User PnL: $11.25

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 10.8%
Current value: $161.25
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.34K
Multiplier: 9.30x
User PnL: -$7.25

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.2%
Current value: $77.25
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.42K
Multiplier: 19.42x
User PnL: -$59.75

Yes position

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $17.25
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.48K
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$14.25

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $45.75
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.45K
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: $9.75

Yes position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $24.75
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.48K
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$8.25

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $80.25
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.42K
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: $2.75

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $51.75
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.45K
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: $21.75

Yes position

Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $29.25
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.47K
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.9%
Current value: $207.75
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.29K
Multiplier: 7.22x
User PnL: -$44.75

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $119.25
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.38K
Multiplier: 12.58x
User PnL: -$15.25

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $80.25
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.42K
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: $27.25

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 14.6%
Current value: $218.25
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.28K
Multiplier: 6.87x
User PnL: $91.75

Yes position

Will Trump Leave China on May 14?

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$2.6

No position

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$2

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.98
Potential profit: $999.98
User PnL: -$441

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 26?

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $434.78

No position

Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $289.8

No position

People's Bank of China rate cut by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $156.85

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $150.2

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $143.66

Yes position

Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $139.05

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 4?

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $138.91

No position

Will Trump visit China by March 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.46

Yes position

Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $114.74

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 5?

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $110.62

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5?

Ends Mar 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104.72

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 27?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.92

No position

Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $93.2

Yes position

Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84.49

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 3?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.01

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $77.32

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 10?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.97

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.54

No position

US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $64.6

Yes position

Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates in May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.78

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.5

Yes position

Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.3

Yes position

Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.56

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?

Yes 5% 20 shares
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?

Yes 11% 9.09 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 92% 513.74 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 94% 500 shares
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

No 88% 1,500 shares
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

No 93.7% 533.62 shares
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?

Yes 8% 12.5 shares
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

No 97.7% 2,048 shares
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?

Yes 6% 16.67 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 78% 5.13 shares
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?

Yes 12% 8.33 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 18.3% 750 shares