Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $2.63K
- Potential payout
- $405K
- Potential profit
- $402.37K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$14.79K
Polymarket Trader
trashpilot
0x9592adb70397e9de67ba9abe6971e3f50fb7a7b8
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $34.31K
- Realized PnL
- $130.15K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $189.64K
- Potential profit
- $189.64K
- User PnL
- -$8.44K
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 10?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $156K
- Potential profit
- $156K
- User PnL
- -$7.42K
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $12.21K
- Potential payout
- $97.66K
- Potential profit
- $85.45K
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.78K
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $95.8K
- Potential profit
- $95.8K
- User PnL
- -$3.44K
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.3%
- Current value
- $6.89K
- Potential payout
- $83K
- Potential profit
- $76.11K
- Multiplier
- 12.05x
- User PnL
- -$4.53K
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $74.73K
- Potential profit
- $74.73K
- User PnL
- -$10.51K
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 11?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $35.45K
- Potential profit
- $35.45K
- User PnL
- -$1.6K
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $162.66
- Potential payout
- $29.58K
- Potential profit
- $29.41K
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$517.3
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.35K
- Potential profit
- $26.35K
- User PnL
- -$830.67
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25K
- Potential profit
- $25K
- User PnL
- -$1.01K
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $124.08
- Potential payout
- $24.82K
- Potential profit
- $24.69K
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- -$600.89
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24.41K
- Potential profit
- $24.41K
- User PnL
- -$195.85
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $23K
- Potential profit
- $23K
- User PnL
- -$9.53K
Yes position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $256.47
- Potential payout
- $22.3K
- Potential profit
- $22.05K
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$105.62
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $187.58
- Potential payout
- $22.07K
- Potential profit
- $21.88K
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$512.41
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 46%
- Current value
- $9.39K
- Potential payout
- $20.44K
- Potential profit
- $11.05K
- Multiplier
- 2.18x
- User PnL
- $4.59K
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $20K
- User PnL
- -$160
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.92K
- Potential profit
- $19.92K
- User PnL
- -$515.37
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.74K
- Potential profit
- $19.74K
- User PnL
- -$825.9
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $8.65
- Potential payout
- $17.3K
- Potential profit
- $17.29K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$916.57
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $35
- Potential payout
- $14K
- Potential profit
- $13.97K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$303.68
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $2.41K
- Potential payout
- $13.8K
- Potential profit
- $11.38K
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- $1.45K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.52K
- Potential profit
- $12.52K
- User PnL
- -$3.46K
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.15K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.38K
Yes position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.58K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.32K
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.73K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.29K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.04K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.06K
Y
Yes position
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.76K
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.59K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.19K
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3K
Yes position
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.54K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.51K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.11K
Yes position
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.08K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.95K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.77K
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.74K
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?
Ends Sep 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.47K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33K
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.11K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?Yes 0.3% 1,404 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No 81.8% 733.5 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No 81.8% 489.08 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 0.6% 5,919 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No 81.7% 733.96 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No 81.7% 367.25 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 55% 231.69 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 54.9% 910.45 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 54% 925.93 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 54% 925.93 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 54% 925.93 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 53.9% 3,711.98 shares