zgmzgm

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $42.99
Potential payout: $53.4
Potential profit: $10.41
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$2.21

Yes position

Will Raphaël Glucksmann announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $42.72
Potential payout: $51.78
Potential profit: $9.06
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $8.13

No position

Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $43.17
Potential payout: $49.91
Potential profit: $6.74
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $2.18

Yes position

Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Oct 11, 2026

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $0.64
Potential payout: $45.45
Potential profit: $44.82
Multiplier: 71.43x
User PnL: -$0.36

Yes position

Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $1.29
Potential payout: $31.75
Potential profit: $30.46
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: -$2.71

No position

Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?

Implied probability: 97.1%
Current value: $22.76
Potential payout: $23.44
Potential profit: $0.68
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.69

No position

Will George Bennett finish top 3 in the 2026 Tour De France?

Implied probability: 53%
Current value: $12.33
Potential payout: $23.27
Potential profit: $10.94
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: -$10.24

No position

Will Georg Steinhauser finish top 3 in the 2026 Tour De France?

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $19.42
Potential payout: $22.58
Potential profit: $3.16
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$2.48

Yes position

Will Bernard Cazeneuve announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $8.96
Potential payout: $21.59
Potential profit: $12.63
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$7.04

No position

Will Tadej Pogačar be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?

Implied probability: 35%
Current value: $5.43
Potential payout: $15.5
Potential profit: $10.08
Multiplier: 2.86x
User PnL: -$3.64

Yes position

Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 74%
Current value: $10.88
Potential payout: $14.71
Potential profit: $3.82
Multiplier: 1.35x
User PnL: $0.88

Yes position

Will Tadej Pogačar finish top 3 in the 2026 Tour De France?

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $11.47
Potential payout: $11.88
Potential profit: $0.41
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.54

Yes position

Will Juan Ayuso win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?

Implied probability: 28%
Current value: $2.33
Potential payout: $8.33
Potential profit: $6
Multiplier: 3.57x
User PnL: $0.33

No position

Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 42%
Current value: $3.4
Potential payout: $8.11
Potential profit: $4.7
Multiplier: 2.38x
User PnL: $0.45

No position

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $4.49
Potential payout: $7.94
Potential profit: $3.45
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$0.52

Yes position

Will Olivier Faure announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

Implied probability: 28.1%
Current value: $1.93
Potential payout: $6.88
Potential profit: $4.95
Multiplier: 3.57x
User PnL: $0.29

Yes position

Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 29%
Current value: $1.93
Potential payout: $6.67
Potential profit: $4.73
Multiplier: 3.45x
User PnL: -$0.07

No position

Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $3.85
Potential payout: $4.14
Potential profit: $0.29
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.39

No position

Will Jean Castex announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $3.26
Potential payout: $3.51
Potential profit: $0.25
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.3

No position

Will Manuel Bompard announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $2.64
Potential payout: $2.82
Potential profit: $0.18
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

Will Benjamin Thomas finish top 3 in the 2026 Tour De France?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $1.6
Potential payout: $1.92
Potential profit: $0.32
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

Will François Baroin win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1
Potential profit: $1
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Will Karim Bouamrane win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1
Potential profit: $1
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will Marion Maréchal win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1
Potential profit: $1
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.01

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Lecornu out as French PM by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.09

No position

Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 67.5%
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: $7.22

No position

Will Marine Le Pen announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.81

No position

Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 70%
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: $4.09

Yes position

Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?

Ends Oct 11, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $4.05

Yes position

Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

No position

Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by <5%?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.36

Yes position

Will François Piquemal be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.67

No position

Will Carole Delga be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 96.6%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $2.26

No position

Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 10?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.95

No position

Will Carole Delga announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

Implied probability: 87%
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $1.91

Yes position

Will Wout Van Aert win the 2026 Paris-Roubaix Hauts-de-France?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.77

Yes position

Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.58

No position

Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 78.5%
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $1.43

No position

Will Mads Pedersen finish in the top 3 at the 2026 Paris-Roubaix Hauts-de-France?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.28

Yes position

Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.23

Yes position

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 3.8%
Multiplier: 26.67x
User PnL: $1.23

Yes position

Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: $1.05

Yes position

Will Florian Lipowitz finish top 3 in the 2026 Tour De France?

Implied probability: 39%
Multiplier: 2.56x
User PnL: $1.04

Yes position

Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.01

No position

Will Olivier Faure be the next Prime Minister of France?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.97

Yes position

Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.96

No position

Will Lucie Castets be the next Prime Minister of France?