No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $40.93K
- Potential payout
- $46.78K
- Potential profit
- $5.85K
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $5.93K
Polymarket Trader
hideo
0x95bf944dd22691364154fb436ee922798566e00b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $308.21K
- Realized PnL
- $77.1K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $29.01K
- Potential payout
- $35.6K
- Potential profit
- $6.59K
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $539.7
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $33.98K
- Potential payout
- $34.23K
- Potential profit
- $256.76
- User PnL
- $1.56K
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $31.46K
- Potential payout
- $31.66K
- Potential profit
- $205.82
- User PnL
- $1.46K
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $29.86K
- Potential payout
- $30.03K
- Potential profit
- $165.16
- User PnL
- $2.36K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $28.74K
- Potential payout
- $28.81K
- Potential profit
- $72.02
- User PnL
- $4.73K
No position
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $19.88K
- Potential payout
- $24.39K
- Potential profit
- $4.51K
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- -$124.39
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.6%
- Current value
- $13.89K
- Potential payout
- $16.42K
- Potential profit
- $2.54K
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $978.82
No position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $15.87K
- Potential payout
- $15.98K
- Potential profit
- $111.84
- User PnL
- $865.59
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $10.06K
- Potential payout
- $12.99K
- Potential profit
- $2.92K
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $64.93
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $9.35K
- Potential payout
- $10.57K
- Potential profit
- $1.22K
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $174.86
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $10.25K
- Potential payout
- $10.4K
- Potential profit
- $156.02
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $3.85K
No position
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $10.16K
- Potential payout
- $10.24K
- Potential profit
- $76.77
- User PnL
- $159.34
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.2%
- Current value
- $8.17K
- Potential payout
- $8.59K
- Potential profit
- $416.5
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $171.25
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $5.28K
- Potential payout
- $5.32K
- Potential profit
- $39.9
- User PnL
- $385.73
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $3.01K
- Potential payout
- $3.06K
- Potential profit
- $41.24
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $10.69
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.2%
- Current value
- $2.6K
- Potential payout
- $2.76K
- Potential profit
- $159.87
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $96.47
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.9%
- Current value
- $2.55K
- Potential payout
- $2.63K
- Potential profit
- $82.85
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $130.25
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $1.31K
- Potential payout
- $1.39K
- Potential profit
- $83.49
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $55.66
No position
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $870.54
- Potential profit
- $870.54
- User PnL
- -$783.49
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.1%
- Current value
- $588.5
- Potential payout
- $638.98
- Potential profit
- $50.48
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $4.47
No position
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLDE?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 93.8%
- Current value
- $469
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $31
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$18
No position
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $476.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $23.5
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $11.5
No position
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLAU?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 97.9%
- Current value
- $337.15
- Potential payout
- $344.56
- Potential profit
- $7.41
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.86
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.64K
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.31K
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $5.8K
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.77K
No position
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.19K
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.87K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.64K
Yes position
Will Trump and Harris debate before election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.2K
No position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.18K
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Ends Aug 19, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.18K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.13K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.83K
No position
Trump out as President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- User PnL
- $2.76K
No position
Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.63K
No position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.51K
Yes position
Fed rate cut by September 18?
Ends Sep 18, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.21K
Yes position
Will Biden finish his term?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.21K
Yes position
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.91K
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.82K
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8K
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.78K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.7K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.53K
No position
Will Trump drop out of presidential race?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.51K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 99.7% 28,807.23 shares
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes 84% 8,720.71 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 84.8% 7,180 shares
- Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 99.9% 6,778 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No 85.1% 1,111.1 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?No 15% 1,470.06 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?No 96% 215 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?No 96% 1,255.06 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yes 61% 29 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No 99.4% 5,655.28 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No 87.9% 1,655.28 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?No 97.4% 3,060.19 shares