No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $29.84
- Potential payout
- $3.98K
- Potential profit
- $3.95K
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- $13.84
Polymarket Trader
ox9614b59508B11504bDA8Ac4FDFBEFc2f92d8D217
0x9614b59508b11504bda8ac4fdfbefc2f92d8d217
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $212.44
- Realized PnL
- $26.14
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.67K
- Potential profit
- $3.67K
- User PnL
- -$11.02
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.75K
- Potential profit
- $1.75K
- User PnL
- -$8.75
No position
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.1%
- Current value
- $13.6
- Potential payout
- $267.14
- Potential profit
- $253.55
- Multiplier
- 19.65x
- User PnL
- $9.86
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $7.11
- Potential payout
- $157.94
- Potential profit
- $150.83
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- $4.42
N
No position
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $132.5
- Potential profit
- $132.5
- User PnL
- -$2.65
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?
Ends Jul 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $2.02
- Potential payout
- $115.45
- Potential profit
- $113.43
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.52
No position
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $3.86
- Potential payout
- $66.56
- Potential profit
- $62.7
- Multiplier
- 17.24x
- User PnL
- $1.85
No position
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by August 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $51.68
- Potential profit
- $51.68
- User PnL
- -$6.05
No position
New pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $36.86
- Potential payout
- $39
- Potential profit
- $2.15
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.59
No position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $29.75
- Potential profit
- $29.75
- User PnL
- -$1.19
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $18.84
- Potential payout
- $20.82
- Potential profit
- $1.98
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- -$0.11
No position
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?
Ends Jul 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Current value
- $19.85
- Potential payout
- $20.19
- Potential profit
- $0.34
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.11
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $3.98
- Potential payout
- $18.53
- Potential profit
- $14.55
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- $0.42
No position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $15.97
- Potential payout
- $16.11
- Potential profit
- $0.14
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $12.08
- Potential payout
- $15.58
- Potential profit
- $3.51
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.4%
- Current value
- $12.14
- Potential payout
- $13.43
- Potential profit
- $1.3
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $0.26
Yes position
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $0.37
- Potential payout
- $12
- Potential profit
- $11.63
- Multiplier
- 32.79x
- User PnL
- -$0.71
No position
Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $7.11
- Potential payout
- $10.53
- Potential profit
- $3.42
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- $1.11
No position
Will four or more people dissent the July Fed decision?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $10.05
- Potential payout
- $10.2
- Potential profit
- $0.15
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.07
Yes position
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $9.94
- Potential payout
- $10.17
- Potential profit
- $0.23
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Yes position
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $1.28
- Potential payout
- $7.77
- Potential profit
- $6.49
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$0.07
No position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $6.68
- Potential payout
- $7.23
- Potential profit
- $0.54
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.11
Yes position
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $0.88
- Potential payout
- $5.65
- Potential profit
- $4.78
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$0.42
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 25.3%
- Multiplier
- 3.96x
- User PnL
- $6.92
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.04
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.12
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.78
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.77
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.36
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.16
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.98
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.98
No position
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 9?
Ends Jul 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- $0.9
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.83
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.71
No position
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.64
Yes position
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16%
- Multiplier
- 6.25x
- User PnL
- $0.57
No position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.42
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.23
No position
Pershing Square acquires Universal Music Group by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.21
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.19
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.16
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.16
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.16
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 22% 5.68 shares
- Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?No 36% 5 shares
- Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?No 98.4% 5.07 shares
- Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?No 36% 5 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 21.5% 5.67 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 76% 5.2 shares
- Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?No 37% 5 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?Yes 2.1% 5 shares
- Iran Nuke before 2027?No 94.8% 1.18 shares
- Iran Nuke before 2027?No 94.8% 5 shares
- Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?Yes 96.7% 5.15 shares
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by July 31?No 99.7% 1.99 shares