Yes position
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $64.77
- Potential payout
- $681.82
- Potential profit
- $617.05
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$10.23
Polymarket Trader
dial-rockfish
0x9620b13dcf352aec9965553fc12c50bc62f54260
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $276.02
- Realized PnL
- $1.04K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $106.25
- Potential payout
- $416.67
- Potential profit
- $310.42
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- $6.25
No position
Lecornu out as French PM by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $215.86
- Potential profit
- $215.86
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
Will Bernard Cazeneuve be the next Prime Minister of France?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $197.68
- Potential profit
- $197.68
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: France Edition
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $129.87
- Potential profit
- $129.87
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $105
- Potential payout
- $105.26
- Potential profit
- $0.26
- User PnL
- $5
Yes position
Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $43.46
- Potential profit
- $43.46
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Another France debt downgrade by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $39.72
- Potential profit
- $39.72
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $32.26
- Potential profit
- $32.26
- User PnL
- -$10
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next Prime Minister of France?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $761.74
No position
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $55.17
No position
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $42.69
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.74
Yes position
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.53
No position
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.29
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.7
No position
Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.04
No position
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.16
Yes position
Fact check: Was Tyler Robinson a lone actor?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.67
No position
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- User PnL
- $5.62
No position
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?
Ends May 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.44
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.37
No position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.26
No position
Will Trump designate ANTIFA a terrorist organization by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.22
No position
Russian strike on a NATO member by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.16
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.58
Yes position
Elon out of Trump administration in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.5
Yes position
Will France win Eurovision 2025?
Ends May 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.28
No position
US recession in 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.17
Yes position
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?
Ends May 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.94
No position
Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.65
No position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.14
No position
Next French confidence vote passes?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.04
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 95% 105.26 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?No 31% 32.26 shares
- Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 24% 416.67 shares
- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 11% 681.82 shares
- Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?No 94% 112.35 shares
- Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?No 96.6% 197.72 shares
- Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?No 97% 309.3 shares
- Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?Yes 23% 43.46 shares
- Will Bernard Cazeneuve be the next Prime Minister of France?Yes 25.3% 197.68 shares
- Next French confidence vote passes?Yes 4% 99.69 shares
- Next French confidence vote passes?Yes 5% 99.69 shares
- Maduro out in 2025?No 86% 23.26 shares