0x9687...1b7c

Implied probability: 23.2%
Current value: $63.89
Potential payout: $276
Potential profit: $212.11
Multiplier: 4.32x
User PnL: $58.54

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 77.1%
Current value: $212.66
Potential payout: $276
Potential profit: $63.34
Multiplier: 1.30x
User PnL: -$53.12

Yes position

Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.4
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.6
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$14.87

Yes position

Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.5
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$0.88

Yes position

Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $98.45
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $1.55
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $23.78

Yes position

Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.55
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$2.63

Yes position

Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.25
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$3.63

Yes position

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 25.3%
Current value: $22.47
Potential payout: $89
Potential profit: $66.53
Multiplier: 3.96x
User PnL: -$0.21

Yes position

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $65.41
Potential payout: $89
Potential profit: $23.59
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $6.06

Yes position

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $1.02
Potential payout: $89
Potential profit: $87.98
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$1.23

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.24
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $59.76
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$0.31

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $20.1
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $39.9
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: -$5.29

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.09
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $59.91
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.23

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $59.85
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $1.47
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $58.53
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$2.02

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $1.41
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $58.59
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$4.36

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $36.3
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $23.7
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $14.1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 59°F or below on June 23?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $48
User PnL: -$0.29

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 23?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $48
User PnL: -$6.24

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 23?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $48
User PnL: -$0.77

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 23?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $48
User PnL: -$2.24

Yes position

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.36
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $47.64
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $0.67
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $47.33
Multiplier: 71.43x
User PnL: $0.24

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on June 23?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $48
User PnL: -$0.26

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 23?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.35

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 23?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.15

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 23?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.02

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 21?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.9

Yes position

Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.09

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 23?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.71

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.62

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.04

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.86

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.56

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.45

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 21?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.26

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.78

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.06

Yes position

Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.23

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 22?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.84

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.6

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.46

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.34

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 9.2%
Multiplier: 10.93x
User PnL: -$0.07

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.17

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20?