No position
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.13K
- Potential profit
- $1.13K
- User PnL
- -$3.01
Polymarket Trader
alyxmesser
0x969097f45ae54696d3a8726c6ae66f3716861306
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $207.52
- Realized PnL
- $296.99
- Win rate
- 58.3%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $497.19
- Potential profit
- $497.19
- User PnL
- -$184.98
No position
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 73%
- Current value
- $179.17
- Potential payout
- $245.44
- Potential profit
- $66.27
- Multiplier
- 1.37x
- User PnL
- $74.32
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $241
- Potential profit
- $241
- User PnL
- -$214.49
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $190
- Potential profit
- $190
- User PnL
- -$84.4
No position
Trump out as President before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Current value
- $20.55
- Potential payout
- $40.69
- Potential profit
- $20.14
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- $0.55
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $7.8
- Potential payout
- $15.15
- Potential profit
- $7.35
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- -$2.2
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $142.48
No position
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.08
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34
No position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9?
Ends Dec 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.89
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.5
No position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.38
No position
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.8
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.63
No position
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1
Yes position
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.8
No position
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 4?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.38
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.36
No position
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 7?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.34
No position
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 2?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.15
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.08
Yes position
Will no leader be out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.12
Yes position
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.4
Yes position
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.2
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin hug on Friday?
Ends Aug 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$6
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?No 47% 8.57 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?No 89% 241 shares
- Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?No 31% 370.64 shares
- Starmer out by March 31, 2026?Yes 21% 47.62 shares
- Starmer out by February 28, 2026?Yes 9% 111.11 shares
- Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?No 36% 55.39 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No 84% 264.07 shares
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?No 93% 40 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?No 58% 50 shares
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?No 78% 5 shares
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?No 30% 13.5 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?Yes 6% 17 shares