mick888

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.29K
Potential profit: $21.29K
User PnL: -$374.02

Yes position

Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$33.73

No position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?

Ends Jan 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $780
Potential profit: $780
User PnL: -$15.04

Yes position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.8%
Current value: $28.5
Potential payout: $599.99
Potential profit: $571.5
Multiplier: 21.05x
User PnL: -$16.5

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $584
Potential profit: $584
User PnL: -$452.42

Yes position

Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $549.98
Potential profit: $549.98
User PnL: -$22.8

Yes position

Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$16.1

No position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Ends Jan 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $499.99
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Ends Jan 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $499.99
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $220
Potential profit: $220
User PnL: -$40.94

Yes position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$46

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $7.7
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $192.3
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: -$20.3

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,975-$5,100 in January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $193.29
Potential profit: $193.29
User PnL: -$22.84

Yes position

Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $180
Potential profit: $180
User PnL: -$21.6

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $148.04
Potential profit: $148.04
User PnL: -$75.5

Yes position

Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$3.9

Yes position

Will Gold close between $4500 and $4600 at the end of 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$4.1

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 96.2%
Current value: $96.15
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $3.85
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $12.15

Yes position

Maduro guilty of all counts?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $16
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $83.99
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: -$22

No position

Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 76%
Current value: $75.99
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $24
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $34

Yes position

Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?

Implied probability: 70%
Current value: $52.5
Potential payout: $75
Potential profit: $22.5
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: $35.25

Yes position

Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $60
User PnL: -$24.9

Yes position

Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$11.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Gold position

First to 5k: Gold or ETH?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $176

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.69

Yes position

Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.9

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.12

Yes position

Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

Yes position

Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minutes and 1 hour and 45 minutes?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44

Yes position

Will England win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43

Yes position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?

Ends Jan 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.32

No position

Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in November?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.19

No position

Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.05

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.5

Yes position

Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 2 hours and 15 minutes?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.5

Yes position

Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.3

No position

Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.5

No position

Xi Jinping out in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.78

No position

Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.48

No position

SBF released from custody in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.44

No position

Will Trump pardon SBF by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in less than 1 hour?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.4

Yes position

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$13.49

Yes position

Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$14.86

Yes position

Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minutes and 2 hours?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$27

Yes position

Will Alex Honnold not complete a free solo of Taipei 101 by January 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$28.9

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November?