Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.4%
- Current value
- $239.95
- Potential payout
- $246.36
- Potential profit
- $6.41
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$4.68
Polymarket Trader
Arieskaseywuckert
0x96a4713a6b6432ca985536d74e31d734b3dd6edf
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $239.95
- Realized PnL
- $187.62
- Win rate
- 58.3%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.39
Thunder position
Cavaliers vs. Thunder
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.56
Raptors position
Raptors vs. Warriors
Ends Jan 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.92
Yes position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.51
No position
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.65
Stars position
Stars vs. Kraken
Ends Nov 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.15
Magic position
Warriors vs. Magic
Ends Nov 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.35
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- User PnL
- $8.49
Sharks position
Sharks vs. Capitals
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.76
76ers position
Bucks vs. 76ers
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1
Thunder position
Thunder vs. Clippers
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.34
Yes position
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.26
No position
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.23
Yes position
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.16
No position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 78.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.66x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- -$0
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 97.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.04
No position
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.06
No position
Will Elina Svitolina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?Yes 78.8% 178 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?Yes 81.7% 100 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?Yes 74.4% 233.1 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?Yes 73% 19.99 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?Yes 73.4% 17.01 shares
- Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No 99.7% 3.8 shares
- Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No 99.8% 3.85 shares
- Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?No 96.8% 14.79 shares
- Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?No 96.9% 14.79 shares
- Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?No 97.3% 14.89 shares
- Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?No 97.7% 14.89 shares
- Will Elina Svitolina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?No 96.6% 3.7 shares