No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $1.2
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $18.8
- Multiplier
- 16.67x
- User PnL
- -$1.6
Polymarket Trader
e38
0x96b41ea3deea1d5e0c83b4bff70cfc209309f299
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $11.63
- Realized PnL
- $18.18
- Win rate
- 75%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $1.31
- Potential payout
- $12.5
- Potential profit
- $11.19
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$1.69
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $8.2
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $1.8
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $2.1
Yes position
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $0.92
- Potential payout
- $7.35
- Potential profit
- $6.43
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.08
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.06
No position
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.06
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.97
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.83
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.58
No position
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.44
No position
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.04
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.99
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.75
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.68
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.64
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.53
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.5
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.48
No position
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.04
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1
No position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.93
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.68
No position
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.52
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.88
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$3.77
Yes position
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.86
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 68% 5 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 55% 5.45 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 33% 5 shares
- US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?No 84% 6.75 shares
- Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?No 94% 5 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?No 95.9% 9.1 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?No 94% 8.33 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 62% 8.06 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?No 61.3% 4.89 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?No 45% 11.11 shares
- Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?No 63% 3.25 shares
- Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?No 62% 4 shares