No position
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $63.01
- Potential payout
- $120.01
- Potential profit
- $57.01
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- $3.29
Polymarket Trader
0x96c54Ad03583Cf794699Cc6F459BbdD5f3c6728b-1777795248486
0x96c54ad03583cf794699cc6f459bbdd5f3c6728b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $231.09
- Realized PnL
- $153.17
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $105
- Potential profit
- $105
- User PnL
- -$2.74
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $90.01
- Potential profit
- $90.01
- User PnL
- -$12.95
Yes position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.9%
- Current value
- $11.57
- Potential payout
- $90
- Potential profit
- $78.44
- Multiplier
- 7.78x
- User PnL
- $2.42
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.4%
- Current value
- $6.62
- Potential payout
- $90
- Potential profit
- $83.39
- Multiplier
- 13.61x
- User PnL
- -$1.99
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $11.07
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $48.93
- Multiplier
- 5.42x
- User PnL
- $0.93
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.7%
- Current value
- $8.19
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $51.81
- Multiplier
- 7.33x
- User PnL
- -$1.38
Yes position
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $2.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $47.25
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$0.2
Yes position
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84%
- Current value
- $42
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $8
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $3
No position
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $22.05
- Potential payout
- $30.01
- Potential profit
- $7.95
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $1.38
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.8%
- Current value
- $3.53
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $26.48
- Multiplier
- 8.51x
- User PnL
- $0.97
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.7%
- Current value
- $2
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $28.01
- Multiplier
- 15.04x
- User PnL
- -$0.79
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$7.3
Yes position
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?
Ends Jul 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $4.5
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $15.5
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- $0.7
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$2.24
Yes position
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 34%
- Current value
- $6.79
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $13.21
- Multiplier
- 2.95x
- User PnL
- $1.05
Yes position
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $9.69
- Potential payout
- $13.01
- Potential profit
- $3.32
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $0.47
No position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80%
- Current value
- $9.87
- Potential payout
- $12.34
- Potential profit
- $2.47
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $0.7
No position
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $9.16
- Potential payout
- $11.17
- Potential profit
- $2.01
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.6%
- Current value
- $3.96
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $6.04
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.35
Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $3.65
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $6.35
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- $0.35
No position
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?
Ends Jul 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $9.25
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0.75
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.05
Yes position
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $1.45
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $8.55
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$1.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $34.86
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.35
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.35
No position
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.19
No position
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.4
No position
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.38
No position
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.14
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 57%
- Multiplier
- 1.75x
- User PnL
- $5.75
Yes position
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.02
No position
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.23
No position
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.15
No position
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.12
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.06
No position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.03
Yes position
Will Putin visit China by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.69
No position
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.39
Yes position
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.25
No position
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?
Ends May 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.95
No position
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.95
Yes position
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.76
Yes position
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.71
No position
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.5
Yes position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $2.5
No position
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.45
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 5.9% 20 shares
- Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 5.9% 30 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 32% 5 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 33% 5 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 34% 5 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 33% 5 shares
- Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?Yes 99.9% 15 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 80.4% 10.12 shares
- Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?Yes 90% 10 shares
- Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?Yes 74% 5 shares
- Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?Yes 72% 5 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 79.8% 5 shares