Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.07K
- Potential profit
- $3.07K
- User PnL
- -$76
Polymarket Trader
intender
0x9701883956edae27b5a1763e968e11249cefc051
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $66.06
- Realized PnL
- $515.37
- Win rate
- 91.7%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.73K
- Potential profit
- $2.73K
- User PnL
- -$10.55
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.43K
- Potential profit
- $1.43K
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.29K
- Potential profit
- $1.29K
- User PnL
- -$221.79
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $809.97
- Potential profit
- $809.97
- User PnL
- -$12.96
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $770
- Potential profit
- $770
- User PnL
- -$8.66
No position
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $543.92
- Potential profit
- $543.92
- User PnL
- -$275.6
Yes position
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $464.09
- Potential profit
- $464.09
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $66.06
- Potential payout
- $281.1
- Potential profit
- $215.04
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$14.74
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $248.57
- Potential profit
- $248.57
- User PnL
- -$2.54
No position
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $182.14
- Potential profit
- $182.14
- User PnL
- -$10.16
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $108.79
- Potential profit
- $108.79
- User PnL
- -$3.59
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $83.33
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $67.35
- Potential profit
- $67.35
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Yes position
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
US x Iran meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$3.7
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.71
- Potential profit
- $26.71
- User PnL
- -$9.86
No position
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$2.2
No position
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 12?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.14
- Potential profit
- $15.14
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $250.03
No position
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.59
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.18
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.6
No position
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.78
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.73
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.41
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.31
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.82
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.18
Gold position
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.86
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.66
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.04
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.37
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.67
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.29
No position
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.2
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.98
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.56
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- $0.2
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 37.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.67x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 72%
- Multiplier
- 1.39x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes 26% 10 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes 26% 40 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes 33.7% 89.11 shares
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?Yes 3.1% 142.85 shares
- Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?Yes 2.3% 1,606.9 shares
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Yes 15.1% 476.19 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes 26% 433.44 shares
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?Yes 7% 142.86 shares
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Yes 21% 238.1 shares
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Yes 21% 238.1 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes 28.9% 416.43 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes 37% 40 shares