Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $280.22
- Potential profit
- $280.22
- User PnL
- -$30
Polymarket Trader
iawa
0x973fbca275912082aace131e32b909ce9f4672cc
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $305.87
- Realized PnL
- $964.43
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $194.48
- Potential profit
- $194.48
- User PnL
- -$19.79
No position
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 81%
- Current value
- $128.72
- Potential payout
- $158.91
- Potential profit
- $30.19
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $25.18
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $129.81
- Potential profit
- $129.81
- User PnL
- -$47.74
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $3.14
- Potential payout
- $128.33
- Potential profit
- $125.18
- Multiplier
- 40.82x
- User PnL
- -$6.86
Yes position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $92.13
- Potential payout
- $112.36
- Potential profit
- $20.22
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- -$7.87
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $1.22
- Potential payout
- $93.91
- Potential profit
- $92.69
- Multiplier
- 76.92x
- User PnL
- -$3.78
Yes position
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 46%
- Current value
- $38.84
- Potential payout
- $84.44
- Potential profit
- $45.6
- Multiplier
- 2.17x
- User PnL
- $0.84
No position
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $84.34
- Potential profit
- $84.34
- User PnL
- -$33
No position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $14.32
- Potential payout
- $77.39
- Potential profit
- $63.07
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$5.68
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
Ends Jan 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $48.95
- Potential profit
- $48.95
- User PnL
- -$2.3
Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $0.59
- Potential payout
- $39.47
- Potential profit
- $38.88
- Multiplier
- 66.67x
- User PnL
- -$14.41
No position
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.56
- Potential profit
- $33.56
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.3%
- Current value
- $2.08
- Potential payout
- $33.33
- Potential profit
- $31.25
- Multiplier
- 16.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.92
Yes position
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $32.95
- Potential profit
- $32.95
- User PnL
- -$20
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET
Ends Jan 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30.64
- Potential profit
- $30.64
- User PnL
- -$3.02
No position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.2%
- Current value
- $10.67
- Potential payout
- $30.35
- Potential profit
- $19.68
- Multiplier
- 2.84x
- User PnL
- -$9.33
Yes position
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $12.07
- Potential payout
- $27.75
- Potential profit
- $15.68
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $2.07
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
Ends Jan 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $25
- User PnL
- -$0.25
No position
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24.71
- Potential profit
- $24.71
- User PnL
- -$22.73
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
Ends Jan 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.99
- Potential profit
- $19.99
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.2%
- Current value
- $2.08
- Potential payout
- $18.55
- Potential profit
- $16.47
- Multiplier
- 8.93x
- User PnL
- -$7.92
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
Ends Jan 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.84
- Potential profit
- $14.84
- User PnL
- -$1.04
Down position
XRP Up or Down - January 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
Ends Jan 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.7
- Potential profit
- $13.7
- User PnL
- -$2.97
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $118
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 1AM ET
Ends Sep 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $62.38
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.88
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 7AM ET
Ends Sep 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $52.96
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.29
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.28
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
Ends Jan 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.39
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.27
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
Ends Jan 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.06
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.78
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
Ends Jan 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.75
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.13
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
Ends Jan 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.23
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.7
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
Ends Jan 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.63
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.38
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.17
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.35
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
Ends Jan 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.27
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 7PM ET
Ends Sep 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $25.87
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET
Ends Jan 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.17
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET
Ends Jan 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $24.79
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
Ends Jan 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.68
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?No 53.9% 18.55 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?Yes 7.9% 126.37 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?Yes 38% 39.47 shares
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 5.3% 93.91 shares
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?No 65.9% 30.35 shares
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?No 25.8% 77.39 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 7.8% 128.32 shares
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?Yes 89% 112.36 shares
- Will Claude go down 12+ times in June?Yes 15% 33.33 shares
- Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June?Yes 36% 27.75 shares
- Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June?Yes 45% 84.44 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?Yes 13% 153.85 shares