0x983d4c605334Ad3Ef06227f1CCCC8Fc2dd5C933f-1757614048183

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $21.93
Potential payout: $292.46
Potential profit: $270.52
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$12.59

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $111.11
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $0.97
Potential payout: $74.48
Potential profit: $73.51
Multiplier: 76.92x
User PnL: -$19.03

Yes position

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $33.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $24.96
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$1.96

Yes position

Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $15.38
Potential profit: $15.33
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$0.95

Yes position

China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $1.61
Potential payout: $14.6
Potential profit: $12.99
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$1.4

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 6.3%
Current value: $0.89
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $13.4
Multiplier: 16.00x
User PnL: -$1.11

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.14
Potential profit: $14.14
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $13.33
Potential profit: $12.33
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $0.46
Potential payout: $10.99
Potential profit: $10.53
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: -$0.54

Yes position

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $10.53
Potential profit: $9.53
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026?

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $1.62
Potential payout: $9.52
Potential profit: $7.9
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: -$0.38

Yes position

Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $0.35
Potential payout: $8.33
Potential profit: $7.99
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: -$0.65

Yes position

Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Implied probability: 11.3%
Current value: $0.87
Potential payout: $7.69
Potential profit: $6.83
Multiplier: 8.89x
User PnL: -$0.13

Yes position

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $5.56
Potential profit: $5.48
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$0.93

Yes position

Epstein suicide note released by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.85
Potential profit: $3.85
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $621.96

Yes position

TikTok sale announced in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $353.88

No position

Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $141.7

Natus Vincere position

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Tearlaments (BO1)

Ends Nov 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $139.52

Yes position

Will Russia capture Yampil' by November 30?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $118.97

No position

Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $102.49

OG position

Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs OG - Game 1 Winner

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95.09

No position

Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $93.72

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $81.97

No position

Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.57

Team Tidebound position

Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.26

Yes position

Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.58

Yes position

Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?

Ends Dec 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.14

Yes position

Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.18

Xtreme Gaming position

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner

Ends Nov 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $40.88

No position

Will Trump shake hands with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the World Economic Forum?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $39.28

Yes position

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $36.6

GamerLegion position

Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.57

Yes position

Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $35.52

Xtreme Gaming position

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO1)

Ends Nov 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.6

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on December 7?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.51

Yes position

Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.82

Natus Vincere position

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner