SuperFake

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $10.62K
Potential payout: $10.65K
Potential profit: $37.29
User PnL: $165.12

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.87K
Potential profit: $9.87K
User PnL: -$9.27K

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $5.55K
Potential payout: $5.59K
Potential profit: $41.91
User PnL: $81.77

No position

Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

Implied probability: 87%
Current value: $3.95K
Potential payout: $4.54K
Potential profit: $590.29
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $210.84

No position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $3.6K
Potential payout: $3.61K
Potential profit: $12.64
User PnL: $289.92

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $2.99K
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $10.49
User PnL: $67.95

No position

Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.58K
Potential profit: $2.58K
User PnL: -$2.5K

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 97.6%
Current value: $2.44K
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $61.25
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $22.25

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $1.1K
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $4.95
User PnL: $9.35

Yes position

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 34.1%
Current value: $373.43
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $723.27
Multiplier: 2.94x
User PnL: $66.06

No position

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $844.59
Potential payout: $976.4
Potential profit: $131.81
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $3.83

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $945.25
Potential payout: $950
Potential profit: $4.75
User PnL: $16.15

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $946.66
Potential payout: $949.99
Potential profit: $3.33
User PnL: $9.97

No position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $543
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $57
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $80

Yes position

Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

Implied probability: 11.2%
Current value: $66.23
Potential payout: $593.95
Potential profit: $527.72
Multiplier: 8.97x
User PnL: -$11.86

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 59%
Current value: $272.47
Potential payout: $461.82
Potential profit: $189.35
Multiplier: 1.69x
User PnL: -$39.19

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $425.51
Potential payout: $427
Potential profit: $1.49
User PnL: $3.66

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?

Implied probability: 91.7%
Current value: $283.95
Potential payout: $309.82
Potential profit: $25.87
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: -$16.05

Yes position

Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $8.22
Potential payout: $167.77
Potential profit: $159.55
Multiplier: 20.41x
User PnL: -$5.91

Yes position

Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $16.88
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $108.13
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$32.13

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $113.64
Potential profit: $113.64
User PnL: -$50

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $103.45
Potential profit: $103.45
User PnL: -$50

No position

Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $44.34
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $22.33
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: $5.67

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $1.5K

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $764.97

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $673.24

Yes position

Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $617.77

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $498.43

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $443.56

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $372.13

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $340.7

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $336.22

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $298.29

No position

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $252.61

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $210.33

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $188.23

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $178.65

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $165.11

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $148.47

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.6%
User PnL: $134.72

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123.41

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120.46

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $119.92

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $117.72

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3PM ET

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.44

No position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?