Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $2.62
- Potential payout
- $476.19
- Potential profit
- $473.57
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$7.38
Polymarket Trader
Oso1
0x993ea2ef918b9ac9b428609532b02691fdc77c69
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $17.67
- Realized PnL
- $382.9
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $474.97
- Potential profit
- $474.97
- User PnL
- -$9.37
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $473.33
- Potential profit
- $473.33
- User PnL
- -$3.9
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $8.01
- Potential payout
- $374.46
- Potential profit
- $366.45
- Multiplier
- 46.73x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $360
- Potential profit
- $360
- User PnL
- -$7.92
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $313.94
- Potential profit
- $313.94
- User PnL
- -$6.88
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $304.71
- Potential profit
- $304.71
- User PnL
- -$6.68
Yes position
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $296.34
- Potential profit
- $296.34
- User PnL
- -$31.84
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $256.37
- Potential profit
- $256.37
- User PnL
- -$4.5
Yes position
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $251.43
- Potential profit
- $251.43
- User PnL
- -$15.65
Yes position
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $250
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $240.47
- Potential profit
- $240.47
- User PnL
- -$20.8
Yes position
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $239.99
- Potential profit
- $239.99
- User PnL
- -$6.72
Yes position
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.9
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $199.1
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $186.88
- Potential profit
- $186.88
- User PnL
- -$4.1
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $181.36
- Potential profit
- $181.36
- User PnL
- -$28.2
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $171.59
- Potential profit
- $171.59
- User PnL
- -$7.91
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $151.61
- Potential profit
- $151.61
- User PnL
- -$14.01
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $142.86
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $6.14
- Potential payout
- $141.43
- Potential profit
- $135.29
- Multiplier
- 23.04x
- User PnL
- -$4.06
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $128.57
- Potential profit
- $128.57
- User PnL
- -$8
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $120
- User PnL
- -$9.6
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110.36
Yes position
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.31
Yes position
Another Houthi strike on Israel by September 15?
Ends Sep 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.08
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.6
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.35
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.88
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.87
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.77
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.13
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.59
Yes position
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of January?
Ends Jan 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.37
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- $7.86
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.54
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.86
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.7
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.35
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.9
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.11
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.07
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.8
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.94
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.86
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.62
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?Yes 11% 45.45 shares
- Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Morocco?Yes 8% 37.5 shares
- Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?Yes 14.2% 7.02 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes 2.1% 238.1 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 84.7% 18.75 shares
- Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No 53% 9.43 shares
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No 66% 7.58 shares
- Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 0.5% 200 shares
- Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?Yes 7% 71.43 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 25% 24 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes 2.2% 136.36 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes 7.5% 39.74 shares