0x9953...51f6

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $2.15
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $7.85
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$0.75

Yes position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 28%
Current value: $2.8
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $7.2
Multiplier: 3.57x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $1.94
Potential payout: $8.27
Potential profit: $6.33
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$0.19

No position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.6

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $2.18
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $2.83
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $0.17

Yes position

Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $2.53
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $2.48
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: $0.87

Yes position

Will Trump publicly praise Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 68.6%
Current value: $3.43
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $1.57
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: $2.03

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $2.68
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $2.33
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: $0.37

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $1.28
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $3.73
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$0.68

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $0.55
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.45
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$1.4

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 69%
Current value: $3.44
Potential payout: $4.99
Potential profit: $1.55
Multiplier: 1.45x
User PnL: $1.55

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 46.5%
Current value: $0.97
Potential payout: $2.08
Potential profit: $1.11
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $0.31
Potential payout: $1.79
Potential profit: $1.47
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$0.69

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

Implied probability: 31.6%
Current value: $0.47
Potential payout: $1.48
Potential profit: $1.01
Multiplier: 3.16x
User PnL: -$0.53

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $0.87
Potential payout: $1.47
Potential profit: $0.6
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: -$0.13

Yes position

Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?

Ends Jan 16, 2027

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $1.02
Potential payout: $1.41
Potential profit: $0.39
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $0.36
Potential payout: $1.41
Potential profit: $1.05
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$0.64

No position

Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 71%
Current value: $0.96
Potential payout: $1.35
Potential profit: $0.39
Multiplier: 1.41x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.8%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $1.04
Potential profit: $0.04
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: -$0

No position

Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $1.01
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.43

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.37

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.12

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.87

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.73

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.72

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.13

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.94

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.94

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.76

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.72

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.57

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.44

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.42

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.33

Yes position

Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.19

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.37

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 14?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.25

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.23

No position

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.21

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.21

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.15

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15?