Polymarket Trader

erlichbachmn

0x999f61d400da1804af3c250b3236a60101c3addb

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $4.54K
Realized PnL: $2.8K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.55K
Potential profit: $10.55K
User PnL: -$399.57

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 40.6%
Current value: $2.04K
Potential payout: $5.04K
Potential profit: $3K
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$709.51

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $28.71
Potential payout: $1.59K
Potential profit: $1.57K
Multiplier: 55.56x
User PnL: -$32.29

No position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.34K
Potential profit: $1.34K
User PnL: -$761.4

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $448.52
Potential payout: $1.08K
Potential profit: $632.25
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$207.36

Yes position

Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.93
Potential profit: $999.93
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.48
Potential payout: $951
Potential profit: $950.52
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$497.49

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 58%
Current value: $526.09
Potential payout: $907.05
Potential profit: $380.96
Multiplier: 1.72x
User PnL: -$150.23

Yes position

Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 35%
Current value: $302.26
Potential payout: $863.59
Potential profit: $561.33
Multiplier: 2.86x
User PnL: $1.3

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 18.4%
Current value: $157.26
Potential payout: $857
Potential profit: $699.74
Multiplier: 5.45x
User PnL: -$0.43

No position

Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $799.99
Potential profit: $799.99
User PnL: -$328

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $8.96
Potential payout: $779.25
Potential profit: $770.29
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$91.04

Yes position

Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.90 and $3.20 on June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $87.5
Potential payout: $699.98
Potential profit: $612.48
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$59.5

Yes position

Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 32%
Current value: $203.55
Potential payout: $636.09
Potential profit: $432.54
Multiplier: 3.13x
User PnL: -$9.64

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $83.84
Potential payout: $621
Potential profit: $537.17
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$21.74

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.29
Potential payout: $589.99
Potential profit: $589.7
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$176.7

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $583.01
Potential profit: $583.01
User PnL: -$355.63

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $54.06
Potential payout: $569
Potential profit: $514.95
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$88.19

Yes position

Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $538
Potential profit: $538
User PnL: -$118.36

No position

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $509.99
Potential profit: $509.99
User PnL: -$260.1

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 83.4%
Current value: $416.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $83.25
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$24.25

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $438
Potential profit: $438
User PnL: -$166.44

Yes position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $73.69
Potential payout: $433.46
Potential profit: $359.78
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: -$24.26

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 23.7%
Current value: $100.51
Potential payout: $425
Potential profit: $324.49
Multiplier: 4.23x
User PnL: -$2.76

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $432.44

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $298.09

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $288.5

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $228

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $216.66

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $199.33

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $181.48

No position

Xi Jinping out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $148.62

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.98

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $127.92

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82

Yes position

Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 37.3%
Multiplier: 2.68x
User PnL: $71.5

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.8

Yes position

Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $61.5

Yes position

Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.98

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: $35.01

Yes position

Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.46

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: $25.74

Yes position

Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027?

Ends Jul 1, 2027

Implied probability: 59.5%
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $25.08

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 53.5%
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: $21.49

Yes position

Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.41

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.5%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $19.8

Yes position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: $17.22

Yes position

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.67

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

No 54.9% 4,545.72 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

No 54.1% 433.64 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Yes 71% 15.84 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Yes 71% 14.15 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Yes 71% 14.15 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Yes 71% 233.46 shares
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?

Yes 39% 210 shares
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?

No 96% 95 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Yes 58% 72.76 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Yes 77% 21.19 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Yes 77% 21.21 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Yes 77% 21.23 shares