Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $27.46
- Potential payout
- $1.72K
- Potential profit
- $1.69K
- Multiplier
- 62.50x
- User PnL
- -$105.07
Polymarket Trader
Ogre-Magi
0x99f0563d918b53dd8bedbcf1709af042c051649f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.17K
- Realized PnL
- $3.88K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 25%
- Current value
- $119.8
- Potential payout
- $479.18
- Potential profit
- $359.39
- Multiplier
- 4.00x
- User PnL
- -$109.14
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $307.7
- Potential payout
- $364.15
- Potential profit
- $56.44
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $19.77
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $22.16
- Potential payout
- $211.04
- Potential profit
- $188.88
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$6.27
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $2.32
- Potential payout
- $210.97
- Potential profit
- $208.65
- Multiplier
- 90.91x
- User PnL
- -$60.66
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $58.16
- Potential payout
- $136.84
- Potential profit
- $78.68
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- $11.93
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $79.96
- Potential payout
- $130.01
- Potential profit
- $50.05
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $1.08
Yes position
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.2%
- Current value
- $120.03
- Potential payout
- $126.08
- Potential profit
- $6.05
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $17.11
Yes position
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 97%
- Current value
- $100.47
- Potential payout
- $103.58
- Potential profit
- $3.11
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $2.07
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $78.76
- Potential payout
- $79.76
- Potential profit
- $1
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $22.75
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.6%
- Current value
- $7.69
- Potential payout
- $61.26
- Potential profit
- $53.57
- Multiplier
- 7.97x
- User PnL
- $2.62
No position
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 74%
- Current value
- $37.4
- Potential payout
- $50.54
- Potential profit
- $13.14
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $3.54
Yes position
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.6%
- Current value
- $16.71
- Potential payout
- $49.74
- Potential profit
- $33.03
- Multiplier
- 2.98x
- User PnL
- -$0.7
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $43.78
- Potential payout
- $45.42
- Potential profit
- $1.64
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $2.88
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.6%
- Current value
- $20.91
- Potential payout
- $43.97
- Potential profit
- $23.06
- Multiplier
- 2.10x
- User PnL
- $11.46
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $5.87
- Potential payout
- $37.86
- Potential profit
- $31.99
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$0.33
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $22.95
- Potential payout
- $30.81
- Potential profit
- $7.86
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $2.72
No position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $24.98
- Potential payout
- $27
- Potential profit
- $2.02
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.95
No position
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $22.63
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $2.38
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.13
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $6.08
- Potential payout
- $22.94
- Potential profit
- $16.86
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- -$6.43
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84%
- Current value
- $17.72
- Potential payout
- $21.09
- Potential profit
- $3.37
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $3.8
No position
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $18.3
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $1.7
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Current value
- $8.96
- Potential payout
- $18.48
- Potential profit
- $9.52
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- -$2.4
No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 16%
- Current value
- $2.84
- Potential payout
- $17.76
- Potential profit
- $14.92
- Multiplier
- 6.25x
- User PnL
- -$3.2
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $552.4
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $333.62
No position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $205.08
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $170.79
Yes position
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-07?
Ends Feb 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $165
Yes position
Will MrBeast's latest video get 18–20 million views on day 1?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $159.05
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $158.73
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?
Ends Mar 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $149.73
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $143.15
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $142.86
No position
Trump kiss by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $141.27
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $138.67
Yes position
Will Khamenei post 20-39 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
Ends Mar 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $136.18
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $135.63
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $134.4
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $128.01
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $126.49
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124.28
No position
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $118.67
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $113.6
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110.85
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $102.94
No position
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.25
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.46
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?No 92% 15.87 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 78% 7.63 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 78% 17.45 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 78% 17.45 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 78% 17.45 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 79% 26.66 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 79% 26.66 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 79% 26.66 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 79% 20 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 79% 20 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 8.4% 15.24 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 8.3% 15.24 shares